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P. Kotov vs R. Noguchi prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
P. KotovR. Noguchi
66.0 %34.0 %
Model favourite
P. Kotov
Probability
66 %
Predicted score
2-0
Exact score
Actual score
2-0 · P. Kotov

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerGuangzhou 2Quarter-finalhard court14:35
P. Kotov
P. Kotov
vs
R. Noguchi
R. Noguchi
2023
Elo
1897
2047
Elo on hard court
1883
6 / 10
Form (last 10)
6 / 10
6
Recent matches
4
Even
Head-to-head
Even
1.44
Odds
2.53

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

P. Kotov
  1. L
  2. L
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
R. Noguchi
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. L
  6. L
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
6 – 4
Wins – losses
6 – 4
13 – 11
Sets won – lost
13 – 12
2 wins
Current streak
2 wins
25-8 (76%)
2026 record
30-20 (60%)
94-73 (56%)
Record on hard court
113-96 (54%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by P. Kotov and R. Noguchi, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

P. Kotov comes in with an Elo of 2023, against 1897 for R. Noguchi: a 126-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 164 points in favour of P. Kotov. P. Kotov won 6 of the last ten matches, R. Noguchi won 6. P. Kotov has 4 wins in the last five matches. R. Noguchi has 3 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make P. Kotov the favourite.

The model gave P. Kotov the win at 66 %, with a likely score of 2-0. P. Kotov won 2-0: prediction correct.

Recent matches

P. Kotov's last five matches

R. Noguchi's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, P. Kotov beat S. Mochizuki (7-6 6-1), then A. Santillan (6-4 7-6). To reach this round, R. Noguchi beat K. Uchida (3-6 6-2 6-3), then C. Sinclair (6-3 6-3). In 2025, the tournament was won by J. M. Cerundolo, who beat A. Tabilo in the final (6-2 6-3).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, P. Kotov wins 55 % (70 of 128), R. Noguchi 47 % (33 of 70). In deciding sets, P. Kotov wins 54 % of the time (101 matches), R. Noguchi 60 % (73 matches). After losing the first set, P. Kotov turned 24 % of matches around (136 occasions), R. Noguchi 23 % (137 occasions). After winning the first set, P. Kotov went on to win 84 % of matches, R. Noguchi 86 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about P. Kotov – R. Noguchi

Who is the favourite between P. Kotov and R. Noguchi?
The match is over: P. Kotov won 2-0. Bookmakers make P. Kotov the favourite, priced at 1.44 against 2.53 for R. Noguchi. Pronocast's model had P. Kotov winning at 66 %.
When is the P. Kotov – R. Noguchi match?
On Friday, 18 September 2026 at 14:35, at the Guangzhou 2 tournament (Quarter-final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between P. Kotov and R. Noguchi?
No meeting between P. Kotov and R. Noguchi appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for P. Kotov – R. Noguchi?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Guangzhou 2

Tournament page

Other matches on 18 September 2026

All matches on 18 September 2026