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Q. Vandecasteele vs D. Ostapenkov prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
Q. VandecasteeleD. Ostapenkov
48.0 %52.0 %
Model favourite
D. Ostapenkov
Probability
52 %
Predicted score
0-2
Exact score
Actual score
0-2 · D. Ostapenkov

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerColumbusQualifyinghard court19:05
Q. Vandecasteele
Q. Vandecasteele
vs
D. Ostapenkov
D. Ostapenkov
1766
Elo
1759
1777
Elo on hard court
1738
6 / 10
Form (last 10)
5 / 10
3
Recent matches
4
–
Head-to-head
Edge
–
Odds
–

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

Q. Vandecasteele
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. L
  9. L
  10. W
D. Ostapenkov
  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. L
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
6 – 4
Wins – losses
5 – 5
14 – 10
Sets won – lost
11 – 12
1 win
Current streak
1 win
23-20 (53%)
2026 record
14-9 (61%)
43-46 (48%)
Record on hard court
10-7 (59%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by Q. Vandecasteele and D. Ostapenkov, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

Both players come in with almost the same Elo (1766 against 1759): nothing separates them in the model's rating. On hard court, the gap is 39 points in favour of Q. Vandecasteele. Q. Vandecasteele won 6 of the last ten matches, D. Ostapenkov won 5. Q. Vandecasteele has 2 wins in the last five matches. D. Ostapenkov has 3 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, D. Ostapenkov leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings. No bookmaker odds are available for this match.

The model gave D. Ostapenkov the win at 52 %, with a likely score of 2-0. D. Ostapenkov won 2-0: prediction correct.

Recent matches

Q. Vandecasteele's last five matches

D. Ostapenkov's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

D. Ostapenkov leads 1 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, Q. Vandecasteele beat P. Stearns (6-2 4-6 6-2). To reach this round, D. Ostapenkov beat I. Palavestra (7-6 6-1). In 2025, the tournament was won by M. Zheng, who beat M. Damm in the final (3-6 6-3 7-5).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, Q. Vandecasteele wins 53 % (17 of 32), D. Ostapenkov 69 % (9 of 13). After winning the first set, Q. Vandecasteele went on to win 82 % of matches, D. Ostapenkov 81 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about Q. Vandecasteele – D. Ostapenkov

Who is the favourite between Q. Vandecasteele and D. Ostapenkov?
The match is over: D. Ostapenkov won 2-0. No bookmaker odds are available for this match. Pronocast's model had D. Ostapenkov winning at 52 %.
When is the Q. Vandecasteele – D. Ostapenkov match?
On Monday, 28 September 2026 at 19:05, at the Columbus tournament (Qualifying, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between Q. Vandecasteele and D. Ostapenkov?
Since 2020, D. Ostapenkov leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for Q. Vandecasteele – D. Ostapenkov?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Columbus

Tournament page

Other matches on 28 September 2026

All matches on 28 September 2026