Z. Zhang vs T. Machac prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction

Z. ZhangT. Machac

32.3 %67.7 %

Model favourite: T. Machac
Probability: 68 %
Predicted score: 0-2
Actual score: 1-2 · T. Machac

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPShanghaiRound of 128hard court08:45

Z. Zhang

T. Machac

1961
Elo: 2169; 1848
Elo on hard court: 2078; 3 / 10
Form (last 10): 3 / 10; 2
Recent matches: 3; –
Head-to-head: Edge; 2.86
Odds: 1.41

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

Z. Zhang

T. Machac

3 – 7
Wins – losses: 3 – 7; 9 – 15
Sets won – lost: 8 – 17; 4 losses
Current streak: 2 losses; 21-23 (48%)
2026 record: 15-14 (52%); 60-70 (46%)
Record on hard court: 143-71 (67%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by Z. Zhang and T. Machac, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

T. Machac comes in with an Elo of 2169, against 1961 for Z. Zhang: a 208-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 229 points in favour of T. Machac. Z. Zhang won 3 of the last ten matches, T. Machac won 3. Z. Zhang has one win in the last five matches. T. Machac has one win in the last five matches. Since 2020, T. Machac leads 2 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make T. Machac the favourite.

The model gave T. Machac the win at 68 %, with a likely score of 2-0. T. Machac won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

Z. Zhang's last five matches

DA. GeaBeijing 2026 · Round of 32 · 30 September 20264-6 3-6
DC. WongHangzhou 2026 · Round of 32 · 24 September 20263-6 3-6
DJ.J. WolfVancouver 2026 · Round of 32 · 29 July 20266-7 6-3 4-6
DC. BroomWinnipeg 2026 · Round of 16 · 22 July 20266-2 6-7 2-6
VT. ZinkWinnipeg 2026 · Round of 32 · 21 July 20267-6 6-3

T. Machac's last five matches

DA. MolcanBeijing 2026 · Round of 32 · 1 October 20263-6 2-6
DA. GeaBeijing 2026 · Qualifying · 29 September 20263-6 4-6
VY. HanfmannBeijing 2026 · Qualifying · 28 September 20267-6 6-7 6-4
DT. SamuelUS Open 2026 · Round of 128 · 30 August 20262-6 3-6 2-6
DM. RottgeringWinston-Salem 2026 · Round of 32 · 26 August 20262-6 6-7

Head-to-head since 2020

T. Machac leads 2 to 0

DT. MachacOlympic Games 2024 · Round of 64 · 28 July 20242-6 6-4 2-6
DT. MachacGrodzisk Mazowiecki 2022 · Final · 21 August 20226-1 3-6 2-6

Road through the tournament

This is Z. Zhang's first match of the tournament. This is T. Machac's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by V. Vacherot, who beat A. Rinderknech in the final (4-6 6-3 6-3).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, Z. Zhang wins 46 % (64 of 139), T. Machac 55 % (64 of 116). In deciding sets, Z. Zhang wins 56 % of the time (99 matches), T. Machac 59 % (104 matches). After losing the first set, Z. Zhang turned 24 % of matches around (131 occasions), T. Machac 26 % (117 occasions). After winning the first set, Z. Zhang went on to win 80 % of matches, T. Machac 89 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about Z. Zhang – T. Machac

Who is the favourite between Z. Zhang and T. Machac?: The match is over: T. Machac won 2-1. Bookmakers make T. Machac the favourite, priced at 1.41 against 2.86 for Z. Zhang. Pronocast's model had T. Machac winning at 68 %.
When is the Z. Zhang – T. Machac match?: On Wednesday, 7 October 2026 at 08:45, at the Shanghai tournament (Round of 128, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between Z. Zhang and T. Machac?: Since 2020, T. Machac leads 2 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for Z. Zhang – T. Machac?: The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions