B. Tomic vs M. Arnaldi prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction

B. TomicM. Arnaldi

33.7 %66.3 %

Model favourite: M. Arnaldi
Probability: 66 %
Predicted score: 0-2; Exact score
Actual score: 0-2 · M. Arnaldi

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPShanghaiRound of 128hard court08:00

B. Tomic

M. Arnaldi

1990
Elo: 2112; 1957
Elo on hard court: 1947; 7 / 10
Form (last 10): 3 / 10; 3
Recent matches: 2; Even
Head-to-head: Even; 2.71
Odds: 1.45

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

B. Tomic

M. Arnaldi

7 – 3
Wins – losses: 3 – 7; 15 – 9
Sets won – lost: 11 – 19; 3 wins
Current streak: 1 loss; 31-22 (58%)
2026 record: 18-16 (53%); 99-78 (56%)
Record on hard court: 67-73 (48%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by B. Tomic and M. Arnaldi, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

M. Arnaldi comes in with an Elo of 2112, against 1990 for B. Tomic: a 122-point edge. B. Tomic won 7 of the last ten matches, M. Arnaldi won 3. B. Tomic has 4 wins in the last five matches. M. Arnaldi has one win in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make M. Arnaldi the favourite.

The model gave M. Arnaldi the win at 66 %, with a likely score of 2-0. M. Arnaldi won 2-0: prediction correct.

Recent matches

B. Tomic's last five matches

VT. SkatovShanghai 2026 · Qualifying · 6 October 20267-5 6-4
VY. ShimizuJingshan 2026 · Round of 16 · 2 October 20265-7 6-2 7-6
VF. SunJingshan 2026 · Round of 32 · 29 September 20266-4 6-7 6-3
DF. SunHangzhou 2026 · Qualifying · 23 September 20264-6 5-7
VR. TeHangzhou 2026 · Qualifying · 22 September 20266-7 6-4 7-5

M. Arnaldi's last five matches

DC. AlcarazTokyo 2026 · Round of 16 · 3 October 20266-7 1-6
VR. SakamotoTokyo 2026 · Round of 32 · 30 September 20262-6 6-4 6-4
DJ. DuckworthUS Open 2026 · Round of 128 · 31 August 20267-5 3-6 2-6 6-7
DM. LandaluceCincinnati 2026 · Round of 64 · 15 August 20264-6 6-4 4-6
DT. GriekspoorMontreal 2026 · Round of 32 · 7 August 20266-3 4-6 3-6

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, B. Tomic beat T. Skatov (7-5 6-4). This is M. Arnaldi's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by V. Vacherot, who beat A. Rinderknech in the final (4-6 6-3 6-3).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, B. Tomic wins 54 % (55 of 101), M. Arnaldi 57 % (69 of 121). In deciding sets, B. Tomic wins 60 % of the time (97 matches), M. Arnaldi 52 % (124 matches). After losing the first set, B. Tomic turned 28 % of matches around (116 occasions), M. Arnaldi 26 % (131 occasions). After winning the first set, B. Tomic went on to win 83 % of matches, M. Arnaldi 78 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about B. Tomic – M. Arnaldi

Who is the favourite between B. Tomic and M. Arnaldi?: The match is over: M. Arnaldi won 2-0. Bookmakers make M. Arnaldi the favourite, priced at 1.45 against 2.71 for B. Tomic. Pronocast's model had M. Arnaldi winning at 66 %.
When is the B. Tomic – M. Arnaldi match?: On Thursday, 8 October 2026 at 08:00, at the Shanghai tournament (Round of 128, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between B. Tomic and M. Arnaldi?: No meeting between B. Tomic and M. Arnaldi appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for B. Tomic – M. Arnaldi?: The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions