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C. Alcaraz vs T. Fritz prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
C. AlcarazT. Fritz
72.7 %27.3 %
Model favourite
C. Alcaraz
Probability
73 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
2-1 · C. Alcaraz

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPATP Laver Cuphard court20:25Time to be confirmed
C. Alcaraz
C. Alcaraz
vs
T. Fritz
T. Fritz
2634
Elo
2367
2477
Elo on hard court
2238
8 / 10
Form (last 10)
7 / 10
0
Recent matches
0
Edge
Head-to-head
–
1.33
Odds
3.35

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

C. Alcaraz
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. L
T. Fritz
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. L
8 – 2
Wins – losses
7 – 3
22 – 7
Sets won – lost
19 – 8
1 loss
Current streak
1 loss
26-4 (87%)
2026 record
33-16 (67%)
153-38 (80%)
Record on hard court
169-78 (68%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by C. Alcaraz and T. Fritz, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

C. Alcaraz comes in with an Elo of 2634, against 2367 for T. Fritz: a 268-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 239 points in favour of C. Alcaraz. C. Alcaraz won 8 of the last ten matches, T. Fritz won 7. C. Alcaraz has 4 wins in the last five matches. T. Fritz has 3 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, C. Alcaraz leads 5 to 1 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make C. Alcaraz the favourite.

The model gave C. Alcaraz the win at 73 %, with a likely score of 2-0. C. Alcaraz won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

C. Alcaraz's last five matches

T. Fritz's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

C. Alcaraz leads 5 to 1

Road through the tournament

This is C. Alcaraz's first match of the tournament. This is T. Fritz's first match of the tournament.

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, C. Alcaraz wins 60 % (92 of 153), T. Fritz 58 % (129 of 221). In deciding sets, C. Alcaraz wins 73 % of the time (90 matches), T. Fritz 58 % (124 matches). After losing the first set, C. Alcaraz turned 48 % of matches around (83 occasions), T. Fritz 31 % (124 occasions). After winning the first set, C. Alcaraz went on to win 94 % of matches, T. Fritz 87 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about C. Alcaraz – T. Fritz

Who is the favourite between C. Alcaraz and T. Fritz?
The match is over: C. Alcaraz won 2-1. Bookmakers make C. Alcaraz the favourite, priced at 1.33 against 3.35 for T. Fritz. Pronocast's model had C. Alcaraz winning at 73 %.
When is the C. Alcaraz – T. Fritz match?
On Saturday, 26 September 2026, at the ATP Laver Cup tournament (hard court). The time is still to be confirmed.
What is the head-to-head between C. Alcaraz and T. Fritz?
Since 2020, C. Alcaraz leads 5 to 1 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for C. Alcaraz – T. Fritz?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: ATP Laver Cup

Tournament page

Other matches on 26 September 2026

All matches on 26 September 2026