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C. Ugo Carabelli vs I. Simakin prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
C. Ugo CarabelliI. Simakin
35.0 %65.0 %
Model favourite
I. Simakin
Probability
65 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
2-1 · C. Ugo Carabelli

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPShanghaiRound of 128hard court06:10
C. Ugo Carabelli
C. Ugo Carabelli
vs
I. Simakin
I. Simakin
2047
Elo
2059
1813
Elo on hard court
2046
3 / 10
Form (last 10)
10 / 10
2
Recent matches
2
Even
Head-to-head
Even
2.74
Odds
1.44

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

C. Ugo Carabelli
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. L
  5. L
  6. L
  7. W
  8. L
  9. L
  10. L
I. Simakin
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
3 – 7
Wins – losses
10 – 0
8 – 17
Sets won – lost
20 – 4
3 losses
Current streak
17 wins
21-22 (49%)
2026 record
40-15 (73%)
20-31 (39%)
Record on hard court
73-30 (71%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by C. Ugo Carabelli and I. Simakin, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

Both players come in with almost the same Elo (2047 against 2059): nothing separates them in the model's rating. On hard court, the gap is 233 points in favour of I. Simakin. C. Ugo Carabelli won 3 of the last ten matches, I. Simakin won 10. C. Ugo Carabelli has one win in the last five matches. I. Simakin has 5 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make I. Simakin the favourite.

The model gave I. Simakin the win at 65 %, with a likely score of 2-0. C. Ugo Carabelli won 2-1: prediction missed.

Recent matches

C. Ugo Carabelli's last five matches

I. Simakin's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

This is C. Ugo Carabelli's first match of the tournament. To reach this round, I. Simakin beat L. Pavlovic (4-6 6-4 6-1), then R. Te (6-3 6-2). In 2025, the tournament was won by V. Vacherot, who beat A. Rinderknech in the final (4-6 6-3 6-3).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, C. Ugo Carabelli wins 52 % (58 of 111), I. Simakin 55 % (26 of 47). In deciding sets, C. Ugo Carabelli wins 66 % of the time (116 matches), I. Simakin 65 % (49 matches). After losing the first set, C. Ugo Carabelli turned 27 % of matches around (156 occasions), I. Simakin 41 % (49 occasions). After winning the first set, C. Ugo Carabelli went on to win 90 % of matches, I. Simakin 87 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about C. Ugo Carabelli – I. Simakin

Who is the favourite between C. Ugo Carabelli and I. Simakin?
The match is over: C. Ugo Carabelli won 2-1. Bookmakers make I. Simakin the favourite, priced at 1.44 against 2.74 for C. Ugo Carabelli. Pronocast's model had I. Simakin winning at 65 %.
When is the C. Ugo Carabelli – I. Simakin match?
On Thursday, 8 October 2026 at 06:10, at the Shanghai tournament (Round of 128, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between C. Ugo Carabelli and I. Simakin?
No meeting between C. Ugo Carabelli and I. Simakin appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for C. Ugo Carabelli – I. Simakin?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Shanghai

Tournament page

Other matches on 8 October 2026

All matches on 8 October 2026