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G. Marques vs P. Nesterov prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
G. MarquesP. Nesterov
34.7 %65.3 %
Model favourite
P. Nesterov
Probability
65 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
2-1 · G. Marques

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerPortoRound of 32hard court12:10
GM
G. Marques
vs
P. Nesterov
P. Nesterov
1830
Elo
1908
1827
Elo on hard court
1862
7 / 10
Form (last 10)
6 / 10
2
Recent matches
3
Even
Head-to-head
Even
2.66
Odds
1.39

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

G. Marques
  1. L
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
P. Nesterov
  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. L
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
2 – 2
Wins – losses
6 – 4
5 – 5
Sets won – lost
15 – 9
2 wins
Current streak
2 wins
2-2 (50%)
2026 record
24-14 (63%)
2-0 (100%)
Record on hard court
10-6 (63%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by G. Marques and P. Nesterov, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

P. Nesterov comes in with an Elo of 1908, against 1830 for G. Marques: a 78-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 36 points in favour of P. Nesterov. G. Marques won 7 of the last ten matches, P. Nesterov won 6. G. Marques has 2 wins in the last five matches. P. Nesterov has 2 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make P. Nesterov the favourite.

The model gave P. Nesterov the win at 65 %, with a likely score of 2-0. G. Marques won 2-1: prediction missed.

Recent matches

G. Marques's last five matches

P. Nesterov's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, G. Marques beat G. Kravchenko (2-6 6-3 6-4), then C. Langmo (7-6 7-6). To reach this round, P. Nesterov beat G. Tabacco (6-4 4-6 6-3), then M. Topo (6-4 6-2). In 2025, the tournament was won by M. Echargui, who beat F. Maestrelli in the final (6-3 6-2).

Frequently asked questions about G. Marques – P. Nesterov

Who is the favourite between G. Marques and P. Nesterov?
The match is over: G. Marques won 2-1. Bookmakers make P. Nesterov the favourite, priced at 1.39 against 2.66 for G. Marques. Pronocast's model had P. Nesterov winning at 65 %.
When is the G. Marques – P. Nesterov match?
On Tuesday, 29 September 2026 at 12:10, at the Porto tournament (Round of 32, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between G. Marques and P. Nesterov?
No meeting between G. Marques and P. Nesterov appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for G. Marques – P. Nesterov?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Porto

Tournament page

Other matches on 29 September 2026

All matches on 29 September 2026