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T. Machac vs A. Gea prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
T. MachacA. Gea
56.5 %43.5 %
Model favourite
T. Machac
Probability
57 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
0-2 · A. Gea

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPBeijingQualifyinghard court05:10
T. Machac
T. Machac
vs
A. Gea
A. Gea
2192
Elo
2180
2112
Elo on hard court
2178
4 / 10
Form (last 10)
8 / 10
0
Recent matches
1
Even
Head-to-head
Even
–
Odds
–

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

T. Machac
  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. L
  8. L
  9. L
  10. W
A. Gea
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
4 – 6
Wins – losses
8 – 2
10 – 16
Sets won – lost
21 – 11
1 win
Current streak
1 win
15-12 (56%)
2026 record
40-16 (71%)
143-69 (67%)
Record on hard court
33-26 (56%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by T. Machac and A. Gea, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

Both players come in with almost the same Elo (2192 against 2180): nothing separates them in the model's rating. On hard court, the gap is 65 points in favour of A. Gea. T. Machac won 4 of the last ten matches, A. Gea won 8. T. Machac has one win in the last five matches. A. Gea has 4 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. No bookmaker odds are available for this match.

The model gave T. Machac the win at 57 %, with a likely score of 2-0. A. Gea won 2-0: prediction missed.

Recent matches

T. Machac's last five matches

A. Gea's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, T. Machac beat Y. Hanfmann (7-6 6-7 6-4). To reach this round, A. Gea beat R. Te (6-2 6-3). In 2025, the tournament was won by J. Sinner, who beat L. Tien in the final (6-2 6-2).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, T. Machac wins 55 % (64 of 116), A. Gea 55 % (32 of 58). In deciding sets, T. Machac wins 59 % of the time (104 matches), A. Gea 48 % (61 matches). After losing the first set, T. Machac turned 26 % of matches around (115 occasions), A. Gea 19 % (72 occasions). After winning the first set, T. Machac went on to win 89 % of matches, A. Gea 81 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about T. Machac – A. Gea

Who is the favourite between T. Machac and A. Gea?
The match is over: A. Gea won 2-0. No bookmaker odds are available for this match. Pronocast's model had T. Machac winning at 57 %.
When is the T. Machac – A. Gea match?
On Tuesday, 29 September 2026 at 05:10, at the Beijing tournament (Qualifying, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between T. Machac and A. Gea?
No meeting between T. Machac and A. Gea appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for T. Machac – A. Gea?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Beijing

Tournament page

Other matches on 29 September 2026

All matches on 29 September 2026