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H. Matsuoka vs L. Harris prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
H. MatsuokaL. Harris
21.1 %78.9 %
Model favourite
L. Harris
Probability
79 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
1-2 · L. Harris

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerGuangzhou 2Round of 32hard court12:35
H. Matsuoka
H. Matsuoka
vs
L. Harris
L. Harris
1866
Elo
2159
1851
Elo on hard court
2110
7 / 10
Form (last 10)
8 / 10
2
Recent matches
1
Even
Head-to-head
Even
4.21
Odds
1.19

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

H. Matsuoka
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. L
  10. L
L. Harris
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. L
7 – 3
Wins – losses
8 – 2
16 – 8
Sets won – lost
18 – 7
2 losses
Current streak
1 loss
30-23 (57%)
2026 record
27-11 (71%)
43-35 (55%)
Record on hard court
92-57 (62%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by H. Matsuoka and L. Harris, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

L. Harris comes in with an Elo of 2159, against 1866 for H. Matsuoka: a 294-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 260 points in favour of L. Harris. H. Matsuoka won 7 of the last ten matches, L. Harris won 8. H. Matsuoka has 3 wins in the last five matches. L. Harris has 4 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make L. Harris the favourite.

The model gave L. Harris the win at 79 %, with a likely score of 2-0. L. Harris won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

H. Matsuoka's last five matches

L. Harris's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

This is H. Matsuoka's first match of the tournament. This is L. Harris's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by J. M. Cerundolo, who beat A. Tabilo in the final (6-2 6-3).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, H. Matsuoka wins 44 % (11 of 25), L. Harris 43 % (49 of 113). In deciding sets, H. Matsuoka wins 43 % of the time (28 matches), L. Harris 62 % (65 matches). After losing the first set, H. Matsuoka turned 27 % of matches around (37 occasions), L. Harris 24 % (93 occasions). After winning the first set, H. Matsuoka went on to win 77 % of matches, L. Harris 85 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about H. Matsuoka – L. Harris

Who is the favourite between H. Matsuoka and L. Harris?
The match is over: L. Harris won 2-1. Bookmakers make L. Harris the favourite, priced at 1.19 against 4.21 for H. Matsuoka. Pronocast's model had L. Harris winning at 79 %.
When is the H. Matsuoka – L. Harris match?
On Tuesday, 15 September 2026 at 12:35, at the Guangzhou 2 tournament (Round of 32, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between H. Matsuoka and L. Harris?
No meeting between H. Matsuoka and L. Harris appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for H. Matsuoka – L. Harris?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Guangzhou 2

Tournament page

Other matches on 15 September 2026

All matches on 15 September 2026