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J. Ortenzi vs P. Badosa prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
J. OrtenziP. Badosa
7.6 %92.4 %
Model favourite
P. Badosa
Probability
92 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
1-2 · P. Badosa

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

WTASao PauloRound of 16hard court19:40
J. Ortenzi
J. Ortenzi
vs
P. Badosa
P. Badosa
1886
Elo
2284
1676
Elo on hard court
2147
4 / 10
Form (last 10)
8 / 10
2
Recent matches
1
Even
Head-to-head
Even
9.75
Odds
1.06

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

J. Ortenzi
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. L
  7. L
  8. L
  9. L
  10. W
P. Badosa
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
4 – 6
Wins – losses
8 – 2
10 – 14
Sets won – lost
17 – 6
1 win
Current streak
1 win
10-8 (56%)
2026 record
24-16 (60%)
2-4 (33%)
Record on hard court
73-38 (66%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by J. Ortenzi and P. Badosa, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

P. Badosa comes in with an Elo of 2284, against 1886 for J. Ortenzi: a 398-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 471 points in favour of P. Badosa. J. Ortenzi won 4 of the last ten matches, P. Badosa won 8. J. Ortenzi has one win in the last five matches. P. Badosa has 3 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make P. Badosa the favourite.

The model gave P. Badosa the win at 92 %, with a likely score of 2-0. P. Badosa won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

J. Ortenzi's last five matches

P. Badosa's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, J. Ortenzi beat C. Paquet (6-3 6-2). To reach this round, P. Badosa beat J. Mikulskyte (6-3 6-2). In 2025, the tournament was won by T. Rakotomanga Rajaonah, who beat J. Tjen in the final (6-3 6-4).

Key numbers

In deciding sets, J. Ortenzi wins 46 % of the time (13 matches), P. Badosa 56 % (72 matches). After losing the first set, J. Ortenzi turned 18 % of matches around (22 occasions), P. Badosa 31 % (71 occasions). After winning the first set, J. Ortenzi went on to win 78 % of matches, P. Badosa 86 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about J. Ortenzi – P. Badosa

Who is the favourite between J. Ortenzi and P. Badosa?
The match is over: P. Badosa won 2-1. Bookmakers make P. Badosa the favourite, priced at 1.06 against 9.75 for J. Ortenzi. Pronocast's model had P. Badosa winning at 92 %.
When is the J. Ortenzi – P. Badosa match?
On Thursday, 17 September 2026 at 19:40, at the Sao Paulo tournament (Round of 16, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between J. Ortenzi and P. Badosa?
No meeting between J. Ortenzi and P. Badosa appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for J. Ortenzi – P. Badosa?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Sao Paulo

Tournament page

Other matches on 17 September 2026

All matches on 17 September 2026