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K. Muchova vs N. Osaka prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
K. MuchovaN. Osaka
56.4 %43.6 %
Model favourite
K. Muchova
Probability
56 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
2-1 · K. Muchova

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

WTABeijingRound of 16hard court09:10
K. Muchova
K. Muchova
vs
N. Osaka
N. Osaka
2481
Elo
2471
2363
Elo on hard court
2324
8 / 10
Form (last 10)
8 / 10
4
Recent matches
2
Even
Head-to-head
Even
1.69
Odds
2.15

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

K. Muchova
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
N. Osaka
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
8 – 2
Wins – losses
8 – 2
17 – 6
Sets won – lost
17 – 7
4 wins
Current streak
2 wins
39-10 (80%)
2026 record
29-10 (74%)
94-36 (72%)
Record on hard court
71-31 (70%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by K. Muchova and N. Osaka, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

Both players come in with almost the same Elo (2481 against 2471): nothing separates them in the model's rating. On hard court, the gap is 39 points in favour of K. Muchova. K. Muchova won 8 of the last ten matches, N. Osaka won 8. K. Muchova has 4 wins in the last five matches. N. Osaka has 4 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020 they have met 4 times, 2 win(s) each. Bookmakers make K. Muchova the favourite.

The model gave K. Muchova the win at 56 %, with a likely score of 2-0. K. Muchova won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

K. Muchova's last five matches

N. Osaka's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

Level, 2 win(s) each

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, K. Muchova beat K. Boulter (7-6 6-1), then L. Samsonova (4-6 6-4 6-2). To reach this round, N. Osaka beat M. Timofeeva (6-3 3-6 6-3), then S. Bejlek (7-6 6-4). In 2025, the tournament was won by A. Anisimova, who beat L. Noskova in the final (6-0 2-6 6-2).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, K. Muchova wins 67 % (38 of 57), N. Osaka 53 % (25 of 47). In deciding sets, K. Muchova wins 57 % of the time (70 matches), N. Osaka 63 % (56 matches). After losing the first set, K. Muchova turned 28 % of matches around (67 occasions), N. Osaka 29 % (51 occasions). After winning the first set, K. Muchova went on to win 91 % of matches, N. Osaka 87 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about K. Muchova – N. Osaka

Who is the favourite between K. Muchova and N. Osaka?
The match is over: K. Muchova won 2-1. Bookmakers make K. Muchova the favourite, priced at 1.69 against 2.15 for N. Osaka. Pronocast's model had K. Muchova winning at 56 %.
When is the K. Muchova – N. Osaka match?
On Tuesday, 6 October 2026 at 09:10, at the Beijing tournament (Round of 16, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between K. Muchova and N. Osaka?
Since 2020 they have met 4 times, 2 win(s) each.
Where can I see the prediction for K. Muchova – N. Osaka?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Beijing

Tournament page

Other matches on 6 October 2026

All matches on 6 October 2026