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M. Giron vs S. Baez prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
M. GironS. Baez
47.9 %52.1 %
Model favourite
S. Baez
Probability
52 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
1-2 · S. Baez

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPShanghaiRound of 128hard court09:15
M. Giron
M. Giron
vs
S. Baez
S. Baez
2023
Elo
2126
1948
Elo on hard court
2007
3 / 10
Form (last 10)
5 / 10
1
Recent matches
1
–
Head-to-head
Edge
2.06
Odds
1.75

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

M. Giron
  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. L
  7. L
  8. L
  9. L
  10. L
S. Baez
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. L
  9. L
  10. L
3 – 7
Wins – losses
5 – 5
10 – 17
Sets won – lost
12 – 12
5 losses
Current streak
3 losses
22-26 (46%)
2026 record
33-23 (59%)
108-102 (51%)
Record on hard court
44-61 (42%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by M. Giron and S. Baez, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

S. Baez comes in with an Elo of 2126, against 2023 for M. Giron: a 102-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 59 points in favour of S. Baez. M. Giron won 3 of the last ten matches, S. Baez won 5. M. Giron has no win in the last five matches. S. Baez has one win in the last five matches. Since 2020, S. Baez leads 3 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make S. Baez the favourite.

The model gave S. Baez the win at 52 %, with a likely score of 2-0. S. Baez won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

M. Giron's last five matches

S. Baez's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

S. Baez leads 3 to 0

Road through the tournament

This is M. Giron's first match of the tournament. This is S. Baez's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by V. Vacherot, who beat A. Rinderknech in the final (4-6 6-3 6-3).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, M. Giron wins 50 % (81 of 161), S. Baez 51 % (50 of 98). In deciding sets, M. Giron wins 41 % of the time (127 matches), S. Baez 54 % (115 matches). After losing the first set, M. Giron turned 20 % of matches around (160 occasions), S. Baez 23 % (145 occasions). After winning the first set, M. Giron went on to win 78 % of matches, S. Baez 83 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about M. Giron – S. Baez

Who is the favourite between M. Giron and S. Baez?
The match is over: S. Baez won 2-1. Bookmakers make S. Baez the favourite, priced at 1.75 against 2.06 for M. Giron. Pronocast's model had S. Baez winning at 52 %.
When is the M. Giron – S. Baez match?
On Thursday, 8 October 2026 at 09:15, at the Shanghai tournament (Round of 128, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between M. Giron and S. Baez?
Since 2020, S. Baez leads 3 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for M. Giron – S. Baez?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Shanghai

Tournament page

Other matches on 8 October 2026

All matches on 8 October 2026