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M. Navone vs P. Carreno-Busta prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
M. NavoneP. Carreno-Busta
53.1 %46.9 %
Model favourite
M. Navone
Probability
53 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
1-2 · P. Carreno-Busta

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPShanghaiRound of 128hard court08:20
M. Navone
M. Navone
vs
P. Carreno-Busta
P. Carreno-Busta
2186
Elo
2169
2020
Elo on hard court
2028
5 / 10
Form (last 10)
4 / 10
1
Recent matches
3
Edge
Head-to-head
–
1.73
Odds
2.10

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

M. Navone
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. L
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. L
  10. L
P. Carreno-Busta
  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. L
  5. W
  6. L
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. L
5 – 5
Wins – losses
4 – 6
12 – 16
Sets won – lost
12 – 13
2 losses
Current streak
1 loss
27-23 (54%)
2026 record
27-18 (60%)
19-36 (35%)
Record on hard court
74-52 (59%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by M. Navone and P. Carreno-Busta, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

M. Navone comes in with an Elo of 2186, against 2169 for P. Carreno-Busta: a 18-point edge. M. Navone won 5 of the last ten matches, P. Carreno-Busta won 4. M. Navone has 2 wins in the last five matches. P. Carreno-Busta has 2 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, M. Navone leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make M. Navone the favourite.

The model gave M. Navone the win at 53 %, with a likely score of 2-0. P. Carreno-Busta won 2-1: prediction missed.

Recent matches

M. Navone's last five matches

P. Carreno-Busta's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

M. Navone leads 1 to 0

Road through the tournament

This is M. Navone's first match of the tournament. This is P. Carreno-Busta's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by V. Vacherot, who beat A. Rinderknech in the final (4-6 6-3 6-3).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, M. Navone wins 49 % (39 of 80), P. Carreno-Busta 56 % (55 of 99). In deciding sets, M. Navone wins 52 % of the time (91 matches), P. Carreno-Busta 49 % (88 matches). After losing the first set, M. Navone turned 29 % of matches around (123 occasions), P. Carreno-Busta 22 % (89 occasions). After winning the first set, M. Navone went on to win 80 % of matches, P. Carreno-Busta 81 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about M. Navone – P. Carreno-Busta

Who is the favourite between M. Navone and P. Carreno-Busta?
The match is over: P. Carreno-Busta won 2-1. Bookmakers make M. Navone the favourite, priced at 1.73 against 2.10 for P. Carreno-Busta. Pronocast's model had M. Navone winning at 53 %.
When is the M. Navone – P. Carreno-Busta match?
On Thursday, 8 October 2026 at 08:20, at the Shanghai tournament (Round of 128, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between M. Navone and P. Carreno-Busta?
Since 2020, M. Navone leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for M. Navone – P. Carreno-Busta?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Shanghai

Tournament page

Other matches on 8 October 2026

All matches on 8 October 2026