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P. Nesterov vs M. Topo prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
P. NesterovM. Topo
48.0 %52.0 %
Model favourite
M. Topo
Probability
52 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
2-0 · P. Nesterov

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerPortoQualifyinghard court12:05
P. Nesterov
P. Nesterov
vs
M. Topo
M. Topo
1893
Elo
1863
1834
Elo on hard court
1872
6 / 10
Form (last 10)
7 / 10
2
Recent matches
6
Even
Head-to-head
Even
1.95
Odds
1.75

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

P. Nesterov
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. L
  9. L
  10. W
M. Topo
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. L
  7. L
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
6 – 4
Wins – losses
5 – 5
15 – 10
Sets won – lost
11 – 13
1 win
Current streak
1 win
23-14 (62%)
2026 record
11-19 (37%)
9-6 (60%)
Record on hard court
18-20 (47%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by P. Nesterov and M. Topo, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

P. Nesterov comes in with an Elo of 1893, against 1863 for M. Topo: a 30-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 38 points in favour of M. Topo. P. Nesterov won 6 of the last ten matches, M. Topo won 7. P. Nesterov has 2 wins in the last five matches. M. Topo has 2 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make M. Topo the favourite.

The model gave M. Topo the win at 52 %, with a likely score of 2-0. P. Nesterov won 2-0: prediction missed.

Recent matches

P. Nesterov's last five matches

M. Topo's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, P. Nesterov beat G. Tabacco (6-4 4-6 6-3). To reach this round, M. Topo beat M. Gonzalez Fernandez (6-3 6-7 6-3). In 2025, the tournament was won by M. Echargui, who beat F. Maestrelli in the final (6-3 6-2).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, P. Nesterov wins 58 % (15 of 26), M. Topo 57 % (36 of 63). In deciding sets, P. Nesterov wins 52 % of the time (27 matches), M. Topo 44 % (61 matches). After losing the first set, P. Nesterov turned 19 % of matches around (37 occasions), M. Topo 16 % (74 occasions). After winning the first set, P. Nesterov went on to win 89 % of matches, M. Topo 76 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about P. Nesterov – M. Topo

Who is the favourite between P. Nesterov and M. Topo?
The match is over: P. Nesterov won 2-0. Bookmakers make M. Topo the favourite, priced at 1.75 against 1.95 for P. Nesterov. Pronocast's model had M. Topo winning at 52 %.
When is the P. Nesterov – M. Topo match?
On Monday, 28 September 2026 at 12:05, at the Porto tournament (Qualifying, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between P. Nesterov and M. Topo?
No meeting between P. Nesterov and M. Topo appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for P. Nesterov – M. Topo?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Porto

Tournament page

Other matches on 28 September 2026

All matches on 28 September 2026