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S. Mochizuki vs P. Kotov prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
S. MochizukiP. Kotov
50.1 %49.9 %
Model favourite
S. Mochizuki
Probability
50 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
0-2 · P. Kotov

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerGuangzhou 2Round of 32hard court09:40
S. Mochizuki
S. Mochizuki
vs
P. Kotov
P. Kotov
1966
Elo
2002
1841
Elo on hard court
2030
4 / 10
Form (last 10)
5 / 10
1
Recent matches
4
Even
Head-to-head
Even
1.79
Odds
1.91

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

S. Mochizuki
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. L
  5. L
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. L
  10. L
P. Kotov
  1. W
  2. L
  3. L
  4. L
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. L
4 – 6
Wins – losses
5 – 5
10 – 15
Sets won – lost
12 – 14
2 losses
Current streak
1 loss
19-28 (40%)
2026 record
23-8 (74%)
116-108 (52%)
Record on hard court
92-73 (56%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by S. Mochizuki and P. Kotov, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

P. Kotov comes in with an Elo of 2002, against 1966 for S. Mochizuki: a 35-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 190 points in favour of P. Kotov. S. Mochizuki won 4 of the last ten matches, P. Kotov won 5. S. Mochizuki has 2 wins in the last five matches. P. Kotov has 3 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make S. Mochizuki the favourite.

The model gave S. Mochizuki the win at 50 %, with a likely score of 2-0. P. Kotov won 2-0: prediction missed.

Recent matches

S. Mochizuki's last five matches

P. Kotov's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

This is S. Mochizuki's first match of the tournament. This is P. Kotov's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by J. M. Cerundolo, who beat A. Tabilo in the final (6-2 6-3).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, S. Mochizuki wins 56 % (59 of 106), P. Kotov 54 % (68 of 126). In deciding sets, S. Mochizuki wins 53 % of the time (120 matches), P. Kotov 54 % (101 matches). After losing the first set, S. Mochizuki turned 20 % of matches around (167 occasions), P. Kotov 24 % (136 occasions). After winning the first set, S. Mochizuki went on to win 83 % of matches, P. Kotov 83 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about S. Mochizuki – P. Kotov

Who is the favourite between S. Mochizuki and P. Kotov?
The match is over: P. Kotov won 2-0. Bookmakers make S. Mochizuki the favourite, priced at 1.79 against 1.91 for P. Kotov. Pronocast's model had S. Mochizuki winning at 50 %.
When is the S. Mochizuki – P. Kotov match?
On Tuesday, 15 September 2026 at 09:40, at the Guangzhou 2 tournament (Round of 32, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between S. Mochizuki and P. Kotov?
No meeting between S. Mochizuki and P. Kotov appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for S. Mochizuki – P. Kotov?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Guangzhou 2

Tournament page

Other matches on 15 September 2026

All matches on 15 September 2026