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T. Samuel vs M. McDonald prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
T. SamuelM. McDonald
69.2 %30.8 %
Model favourite
T. Samuel
Probability
69 %
Predicted score
2-0
Exact score
Actual score
2-0 · T. Samuel

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerPortoRound of 32hard court14:20
T. Samuel
T. Samuel
vs
M. McDonald
M. McDonald
2179
Elo
1962
2178
Elo on hard court
1956
8 / 10
Form (last 10)
3 / 10
1
Recent matches
0
Even
Head-to-head
Even
1.30
Odds
2.81

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

T. Samuel
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
M. McDonald
  1. L
  2. L
  3. W
  4. L
  5. L
  6. L
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. L
8 – 2
Wins – losses
3 – 7
17 – 8
Sets won – lost
9 – 16
1 win
Current streak
1 loss
37-16 (70%)
2026 record
17-23 (43%)
45-15 (75%)
Record on hard court
118-100 (54%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by T. Samuel and M. McDonald, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

T. Samuel comes in with an Elo of 2179, against 1962 for M. McDonald: a 217-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 223 points in favour of T. Samuel. T. Samuel won 8 of the last ten matches, M. McDonald won 3. T. Samuel has 4 wins in the last five matches. M. McDonald has 2 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make T. Samuel the favourite.

The model gave T. Samuel the win at 69 %, with a likely score of 2-0. T. Samuel won 2-0: prediction correct.

Recent matches

T. Samuel's last five matches

M. McDonald's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

This is T. Samuel's first match of the tournament. This is M. McDonald's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by M. Echargui, who beat F. Maestrelli in the final (6-3 6-2).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, T. Samuel wins 66 % (21 of 32), M. McDonald 42 % (52 of 124). In deciding sets, T. Samuel wins 50 % of the time (28 matches), M. McDonald 46 % (101 matches). After losing the first set, T. Samuel turned 33 % of matches around (27 occasions), M. McDonald 17 % (145 occasions). After winning the first set, T. Samuel went on to win 85 % of matches, M. McDonald 78 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about T. Samuel – M. McDonald

Who is the favourite between T. Samuel and M. McDonald?
The match is over: T. Samuel won 2-0. Bookmakers make T. Samuel the favourite, priced at 1.30 against 2.81 for M. McDonald. Pronocast's model had T. Samuel winning at 69 %.
When is the T. Samuel – M. McDonald match?
On Tuesday, 29 September 2026 at 14:20, at the Porto tournament (Round of 32, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between T. Samuel and M. McDonald?
No meeting between T. Samuel and M. McDonald appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for T. Samuel – M. McDonald?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Porto

Tournament page

Other matches on 29 September 2026

All matches on 29 September 2026