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A. Guerrieri vs F. Maestrelli prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
A. GuerrieriF. Maestrelli
64.3 %35.7 %
Model favourite
A. Guerrieri
Probability
64 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
2-1 · A. Guerrieri

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerSt. TropezRound of 32hard court15:05
A. Guerrieri
A. Guerrieri
vs
F. Maestrelli
F. Maestrelli
2043
Elo
1868
1949
Elo on hard court
1870
7 / 10
Form (last 10)
4 / 10
0
Recent matches
6
Even
Head-to-head
Even
–
Odds
–

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

A. Guerrieri
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. L
F. Maestrelli
  1. L
  2. L
  3. L
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. L
7 – 3
Wins – losses
4 – 6
14 – 13
Sets won – lost
11 – 14
1 loss
Current streak
1 loss
38-19 (67%)
2026 record
17-25 (40%)
16-13 (55%)
Record on hard court
67-57 (54%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by A. Guerrieri and F. Maestrelli, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

A. Guerrieri comes in with an Elo of 2043, against 1868 for F. Maestrelli: a 175-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 79 points in favour of A. Guerrieri. A. Guerrieri won 7 of the last ten matches, F. Maestrelli won 4. A. Guerrieri has 3 wins in the last five matches. F. Maestrelli has 3 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. No bookmaker odds are available for this match.

The model gave A. Guerrieri the win at 64 %, with a likely score of 2-0. A. Guerrieri won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

A. Guerrieri's last five matches

F. Maestrelli's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

This is A. Guerrieri's first match of the tournament. This is F. Maestrelli's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by M. Echargui, who beat D. Added in the final (6-3 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, A. Guerrieri wins 36 % (9 of 25), F. Maestrelli 53 % (59 of 111). In deciding sets, A. Guerrieri wins 68 % of the time (34 matches), F. Maestrelli 55 % (107 matches). After losing the first set, A. Guerrieri turned 28 % of matches around (54 occasions), F. Maestrelli 23 % (167 occasions). After winning the first set, A. Guerrieri went on to win 96 % of matches, F. Maestrelli 87 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about A. Guerrieri – F. Maestrelli

Who is the favourite between A. Guerrieri and F. Maestrelli?
The match is over: A. Guerrieri won 2-1. No bookmaker odds are available for this match. Pronocast's model had A. Guerrieri winning at 64 %.
When is the A. Guerrieri – F. Maestrelli match?
On Monday, 21 September 2026 at 15:05, at the St. Tropez tournament (Round of 32, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between A. Guerrieri and F. Maestrelli?
No meeting between A. Guerrieri and F. Maestrelli appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for A. Guerrieri – F. Maestrelli?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: St. Tropez

Tournament page

Other matches on 21 September 2026

All matches on 21 September 2026