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H. Mayot vs M. Cassone prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
H. MayotM. Cassone
58.3 %41.7 %
Model favourite
H. Mayot
Probability
58 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
1-1 · H. Mayot

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerSt. TropezSemi-finalhard court14:05
H. Mayot
H. Mayot
vs
M. Cassone
M. Cassone
2036
Elo
1990
2031
Elo on hard court
1960
8 / 10
Form (last 10)
9 / 10
8
Recent matches
6
Even
Head-to-head
Even
1.57
Odds
2.25

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

H. Mayot
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
M. Cassone
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
8 – 2
Wins – losses
9 – 1
17 – 8
Sets won – lost
18 – 6
3 wins
Current streak
6 wins
22-15 (59%)
2026 record
21-17 (55%)
99-78 (56%)
Record on hard court
78-55 (59%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by H. Mayot and M. Cassone, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

H. Mayot comes in with an Elo of 2036, against 1990 for M. Cassone: a 46-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 71 points in favour of H. Mayot. H. Mayot won 8 of the last ten matches, M. Cassone won 9. H. Mayot has 4 wins in the last five matches. M. Cassone has 5 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make H. Mayot the favourite.

The model gave H. Mayot the win at 58 %, with a likely score of 2-0. H. Mayot won 1-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

H. Mayot's last five matches

M. Cassone's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, H. Mayot beat J. Boulais (6-4 2-6 7-6), then E. Butvilas (6-4 6-3), then J. De Jong (6-3 4-6 7-5). To reach this round, M. Cassone beat H. Car (6-4 6-0), then P. Zahraj (6-2 7-5), then C. Tabur (7-6 4-6 6-3), then B. Harris (7-6 6-4), then D. Masur (6-7 7-6 6-4). In 2025, the tournament was won by M. Echargui, who beat D. Added in the final (6-3 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, H. Mayot wins 43 % (40 of 92), M. Cassone 57 % (41 of 72). In deciding sets, H. Mayot wins 51 % of the time (84 matches), M. Cassone 50 % (58 matches). After losing the first set, H. Mayot turned 14 % of matches around (134 occasions), M. Cassone 19 % (70 occasions). After winning the first set, H. Mayot went on to win 89 % of matches, M. Cassone 88 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about H. Mayot – M. Cassone

Who is the favourite between H. Mayot and M. Cassone?
The match is over: H. Mayot won 1-1. Bookmakers make H. Mayot the favourite, priced at 1.57 against 2.25 for M. Cassone. Pronocast's model had H. Mayot winning at 58 %.
When is the H. Mayot – M. Cassone match?
On Saturday, 26 September 2026 at 14:05, at the St. Tropez tournament (Semi-final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between H. Mayot and M. Cassone?
No meeting between H. Mayot and M. Cassone appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for H. Mayot – M. Cassone?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: St. Tropez

Tournament page

Other matches on 26 September 2026

All matches on 26 September 2026