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A. Guerrieri vs J. De Jong prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
A. GuerrieriJ. De Jong
33.5 %66.5 %
Model favourite
J. De Jong
Probability
66 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
1-2 · J. De Jong

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerSt. TropezRound of 16hard court17:40
A. Guerrieri
A. Guerrieri
vs
J. De Jong
J. De Jong
2051
Elo
2078
1964
Elo on hard court
1892
7 / 10
Form (last 10)
5 / 10
1
Recent matches
2
Even
Head-to-head
Even
2.77
Odds
1.39

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

A. Guerrieri
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
J. De Jong
  1. L
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. L
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
7 – 3
Wins – losses
5 – 5
14 – 13
Sets won – lost
13 – 13
1 win
Current streak
2 wins
39-19 (67%)
2026 record
27-25 (52%)
17-13 (57%)
Record on hard court
57-54 (51%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by A. Guerrieri and J. De Jong, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

J. De Jong comes in with an Elo of 2078, against 2051 for A. Guerrieri: a 27-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 73 points in favour of A. Guerrieri. A. Guerrieri won 7 of the last ten matches, J. De Jong won 5. A. Guerrieri has 4 wins in the last five matches. J. De Jong has 3 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make J. De Jong the favourite.

The model gave J. De Jong the win at 66 %, with a likely score of 2-0. J. De Jong won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

A. Guerrieri's last five matches

J. De Jong's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, A. Guerrieri beat F. Maestrelli (6-3 6-7 6-3). To reach this round, J. De Jong beat R. Bertola (7-6 7-6). In 2025, the tournament was won by M. Echargui, who beat D. Added in the final (6-3 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, A. Guerrieri wins 35 % (9 of 26), J. De Jong 50 % (65 of 130). In deciding sets, A. Guerrieri wins 69 % of the time (35 matches), J. De Jong 54 % (101 matches). After losing the first set, A. Guerrieri turned 28 % of matches around (54 occasions), J. De Jong 21 % (144 occasions). After winning the first set, A. Guerrieri went on to win 96 % of matches, J. De Jong 86 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about A. Guerrieri – J. De Jong

Who is the favourite between A. Guerrieri and J. De Jong?
The match is over: J. De Jong won 2-1. Bookmakers make J. De Jong the favourite, priced at 1.39 against 2.77 for A. Guerrieri. Pronocast's model had J. De Jong winning at 66 %.
When is the A. Guerrieri – J. De Jong match?
On Thursday, 24 September 2026 at 17:40, at the St. Tropez tournament (Round of 16, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between A. Guerrieri and J. De Jong?
No meeting between A. Guerrieri and J. De Jong appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for A. Guerrieri – J. De Jong?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: St. Tropez

Tournament page

Other matches on 24 September 2026

All matches on 24 September 2026