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A. Holmgren vs A. Guerrieri prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
A. HolmgrenA. Guerrieri
40.8 %59.2 %
Model favourite
A. Guerrieri
Probability
59 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
2-0 · A. Holmgren

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerPortoRound of 16hard court16:00
A. Holmgren
A. Holmgren
vs
A. Guerrieri
A. Guerrieri
1915
Elo
2051
1858
Elo on hard court
1963
4 / 10
Form (last 10)
6 / 10
1
Recent matches
3
–
Head-to-head
Edge
2.27
Odds
1.59

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

A. Holmgren
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. L
  6. L
  7. L
  8. L
  9. L
  10. W
A. Guerrieri
  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
4 – 6
Wins – losses
6 – 4
12 – 13
Sets won – lost
13 – 14
1 win
Current streak
1 win
27-28 (49%)
2026 record
40-20 (67%)
83-61 (58%)
Record on hard court
18-14 (56%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by A. Holmgren and A. Guerrieri, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

A. Guerrieri comes in with an Elo of 2051, against 1915 for A. Holmgren: a 136-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 105 points in favour of A. Guerrieri. A. Holmgren won 4 of the last ten matches, A. Guerrieri won 6. A. Holmgren has one win in the last five matches. A. Guerrieri has 3 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, A. Guerrieri leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make A. Guerrieri the favourite.

The model gave A. Guerrieri the win at 59 %, with a likely score of 2-0. A. Holmgren won 2-0: prediction missed.

Recent matches

A. Holmgren's last five matches

A. Guerrieri's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

A. Guerrieri leads 1 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, A. Holmgren beat B. Bonzi (6-3 6-4). To reach this round, A. Guerrieri beat A. Matusevich (6-4 4-6 6-0). In 2025, the tournament was won by M. Echargui, who beat F. Maestrelli in the final (6-3 6-2).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, A. Holmgren wins 61 % (65 of 107), A. Guerrieri 32 % (9 of 28). In deciding sets, A. Holmgren wins 46 % of the time (74 matches), A. Guerrieri 68 % (37 matches). After losing the first set, A. Holmgren turned 19 % of matches around (90 occasions), A. Guerrieri 28 % (54 occasions). After winning the first set, A. Holmgren went on to win 80 % of matches, A. Guerrieri 94 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about A. Holmgren – A. Guerrieri

Who is the favourite between A. Holmgren and A. Guerrieri?
The match is over: A. Holmgren won 2-0. Bookmakers make A. Guerrieri the favourite, priced at 1.59 against 2.27 for A. Holmgren. Pronocast's model had A. Guerrieri winning at 59 %.
When is the A. Holmgren – A. Guerrieri match?
On Thursday, 1 October 2026 at 16:00, at the Porto tournament (Round of 16, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between A. Holmgren and A. Guerrieri?
Since 2020, A. Guerrieri leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for A. Holmgren – A. Guerrieri?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Porto

Tournament page

Other matches on 1 October 2026

All matches on 1 October 2026