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A. Mannarino vs D. Shapovalov prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
A. MannarinoD. Shapovalov
29.5 %70.5 %
Model favourite
D. Shapovalov
Probability
70 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
1-2 · D. Shapovalov

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPChengduQuarter-finalhard court10:40
A. Mannarino
A. Mannarino
vs
D. Shapovalov
D. Shapovalov
2045
Elo
2203
1976
Elo on hard court
2191
4 / 10
Form (last 10)
7 / 10
4
Recent matches
2
–
Head-to-head
Edge
3.03
Odds
1.36

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

A. Mannarino
  1. L
  2. L
  3. L
  4. L
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
D. Shapovalov
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
4 – 6
Wins – losses
7 – 3
9 – 15
Sets won – lost
18 – 9
2 wins
Current streak
2 wins
18-29 (38%)
2026 record
18-16 (53%)
99-111 (47%)
Record on hard court
94-69 (58%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by A. Mannarino and D. Shapovalov, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

D. Shapovalov comes in with an Elo of 2203, against 2045 for A. Mannarino: a 158-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 216 points in favour of D. Shapovalov. A. Mannarino won 4 of the last ten matches, D. Shapovalov won 7. A. Mannarino has 3 wins in the last five matches. D. Shapovalov has 4 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, D. Shapovalov leads 2 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make D. Shapovalov the favourite.

The model gave D. Shapovalov the win at 70 %, with a likely score of 2-0. D. Shapovalov won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

A. Mannarino's last five matches

D. Shapovalov's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

D. Shapovalov leads 2 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, A. Mannarino beat J. Shang (7-6 6-2), then A. Tabilo (6-4 6-4). To reach this round, D. Shapovalov beat T. Griekspoor (6-4 7-6), then V. Kopriva (6-2 6-3). In 2025, the tournament was won by A. Tabilo, who beat L. Musetti in the final (6-3 2-6 7-6).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, A. Mannarino wins 44 % (59 of 133), D. Shapovalov 51 % (61 of 119). In deciding sets, A. Mannarino wins 50 % of the time (103 matches), D. Shapovalov 49 % (81 matches). After losing the first set, A. Mannarino turned 20 % of matches around (181 occasions), D. Shapovalov 18 % (112 occasions). After winning the first set, A. Mannarino went on to win 83 % of matches, D. Shapovalov 85 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about A. Mannarino – D. Shapovalov

Who is the favourite between A. Mannarino and D. Shapovalov?
The match is over: D. Shapovalov won 2-1. Bookmakers make D. Shapovalov the favourite, priced at 1.36 against 3.03 for A. Mannarino. Pronocast's model had D. Shapovalov winning at 70 %.
When is the A. Mannarino – D. Shapovalov match?
On Sunday, 27 September 2026 at 10:40, at the Chengdu tournament (Quarter-final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between A. Mannarino and D. Shapovalov?
Since 2020, D. Shapovalov leads 2 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for A. Mannarino – D. Shapovalov?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Chengdu

Tournament page

Other matches on 27 September 2026

All matches on 27 September 2026