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L. Harris vs H. Hurkacz prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
L. HarrisH. Hurkacz
39.5 %60.5 %
Model favourite
H. Hurkacz
Probability
60 %
Predicted score
0-2
Exact score
Actual score
0-2 · H. Hurkacz

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPChengduQuarter-finalhard court13:35
L. Harris
L. Harris
vs
H. Hurkacz
H. Hurkacz
2186
Elo
2288
2139
Elo on hard court
2120
8 / 10
Form (last 10)
8 / 10
6
Recent matches
2
Even
Head-to-head
Even
2.33
Odds
1.52

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

L. Harris
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
H. Hurkacz
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
8 – 2
Wins – losses
8 – 2
19 – 7
Sets won – lost
19 – 9
4 wins
Current streak
2 wins
32-12 (73%)
2026 record
27-18 (60%)
97-58 (63%)
Record on hard court
122-75 (62%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by L. Harris and H. Hurkacz, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

H. Hurkacz comes in with an Elo of 2288, against 2186 for L. Harris: a 101-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 19 points in favour of L. Harris. L. Harris won 8 of the last ten matches, H. Hurkacz won 8. L. Harris has 4 wins in the last five matches. H. Hurkacz has 4 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, H. Hurkacz leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make H. Hurkacz the favourite.

The model gave H. Hurkacz the win at 60 %, with a likely score of 2-0. H. Hurkacz won 2-0: prediction correct.

Recent matches

L. Harris's last five matches

H. Hurkacz's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

H. Hurkacz leads 1 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, L. Harris beat K. Miyoshi (6-3 7-5), then A. Galarneau (6-3 7-5), then A. Kovacevic (6-3 6-4), then V. Vacherot (6-4 7-6). To reach this round, H. Hurkacz beat A. Shevchenko (6-3 7-6), then M. Damm (4-6 6-3 6-4). In 2025, the tournament was won by A. Tabilo, who beat L. Musetti in the final (6-3 2-6 7-6).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, L. Harris wins 44 % (51 of 117), H. Hurkacz 53 % (124 of 232). In deciding sets, L. Harris wins 61 % of the time (67 matches), H. Hurkacz 55 % (129 matches). After losing the first set, L. Harris turned 24 % of matches around (94 occasions), H. Hurkacz 32 % (111 occasions). After winning the first set, L. Harris went on to win 84 % of matches, H. Hurkacz 83 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about L. Harris – H. Hurkacz

Who is the favourite between L. Harris and H. Hurkacz?
The match is over: H. Hurkacz won 2-0. Bookmakers make H. Hurkacz the favourite, priced at 1.52 against 2.33 for L. Harris. Pronocast's model had H. Hurkacz winning at 60 %.
When is the L. Harris – H. Hurkacz match?
On Sunday, 27 September 2026 at 13:35, at the Chengdu tournament (Quarter-final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between L. Harris and H. Hurkacz?
Since 2020, H. Hurkacz leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for L. Harris – H. Hurkacz?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Chengdu

Tournament page

Other matches on 27 September 2026

All matches on 27 September 2026