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N. Basilashvili vs A. Davidovich Fokina prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
N. BasilashviliA. Davidovich Fokina
33.2 %66.8 %
Model favourite
A. Davidovich Fokina
Probability
67 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
1-2 · A. Davidovich Fokina

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPChengduSemi-finalhard court11:10
N. Basilashvili
N. Basilashvili
vs
A. Davidovich Fokina
A. Davidovich Fokina
2051
Elo
2285
1993
Elo on hard court
2160
6 / 10
Form (last 10)
8 / 10
5
Recent matches
2
Even
Head-to-head
Even
2.72
Odds
1.38

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

N. Basilashvili
  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. L
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
A. Davidovich Fokina
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
6 – 4
Wins – losses
8 – 2
13 – 9
Sets won – lost
22 – 6
5 wins
Current streak
2 wins
24-25 (49%)
2026 record
25-14 (64%)
64-73 (47%)
Record on hard court
92-79 (54%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by N. Basilashvili and A. Davidovich Fokina, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

A. Davidovich Fokina comes in with an Elo of 2285, against 2051 for N. Basilashvili: a 234-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 166 points in favour of A. Davidovich Fokina. N. Basilashvili won 6 of the last ten matches, A. Davidovich Fokina won 8. N. Basilashvili has 5 wins in the last five matches. A. Davidovich Fokina has 3 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, N. Basilashvili leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make A. Davidovich Fokina the favourite.

The model gave A. Davidovich Fokina the win at 67 %, with a likely score of 2-0. A. Davidovich Fokina won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

N. Basilashvili's last five matches

A. Davidovich Fokina's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

N. Basilashvili leads 1 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, N. Basilashvili beat H. Lu (6-2 6-0), then F. Cina (6-3 6-2), then M. Kecmanovic (7-6 6-4), then B. Van De Zandschulp (6-4 7-5), then J. Brooksby (6-4 7-6). To reach this round, A. Davidovich Fokina beat J. M. Cerundolo (6-4 6-4), then A. Muller (6-1 7-5). In 2025, the tournament was won by A. Tabilo, who beat L. Musetti in the final (6-3 2-6 7-6).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, N. Basilashvili wins 55 % (58 of 105), A. Davidovich Fokina 44 % (60 of 136). In deciding sets, N. Basilashvili wins 54 % of the time (90 matches), A. Davidovich Fokina 47 % (90 matches). After losing the first set, N. Basilashvili turned 15 % of matches around (130 occasions), A. Davidovich Fokina 19 % (119 occasions). After winning the first set, N. Basilashvili went on to win 85 % of matches, A. Davidovich Fokina 81 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about N. Basilashvili – A. Davidovich Fokina

Who is the favourite between N. Basilashvili and A. Davidovich Fokina?
The match is over: A. Davidovich Fokina won 2-1. Bookmakers make A. Davidovich Fokina the favourite, priced at 1.38 against 2.72 for N. Basilashvili. Pronocast's model had A. Davidovich Fokina winning at 67 %.
When is the N. Basilashvili – A. Davidovich Fokina match?
On Monday, 28 September 2026 at 11:10, at the Chengdu tournament (Semi-final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between N. Basilashvili and A. Davidovich Fokina?
Since 2020, N. Basilashvili leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for N. Basilashvili – A. Davidovich Fokina?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Chengdu

Tournament page

Other matches on 28 September 2026

All matches on 28 September 2026