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H. Hurkacz vs D. Shapovalov prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
H. HurkaczD. Shapovalov
55.7 %44.3 %
Model favourite
H. Hurkacz
Probability
56 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
2-1 · H. Hurkacz

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPChengduSemi-finalhard court13:25
H. Hurkacz
H. Hurkacz
vs
D. Shapovalov
D. Shapovalov
2298
Elo
2212
2138
Elo on hard court
2200
8 / 10
Form (last 10)
7 / 10
3
Recent matches
3
Edge
Head-to-head
–
1.59
Odds
2.16

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

H. Hurkacz
  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
D. Shapovalov
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
8 – 2
Wins – losses
7 – 3
19 – 9
Sets won – lost
18 – 10
3 wins
Current streak
3 wins
28-18 (61%)
2026 record
19-16 (54%)
123-75 (62%)
Record on hard court
95-69 (58%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by H. Hurkacz and D. Shapovalov, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

H. Hurkacz comes in with an Elo of 2298, against 2212 for D. Shapovalov: a 86-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 62 points in favour of D. Shapovalov. H. Hurkacz won 8 of the last ten matches, D. Shapovalov won 7. H. Hurkacz has 4 wins in the last five matches. D. Shapovalov has 4 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, H. Hurkacz leads 2 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make H. Hurkacz the favourite.

The model gave H. Hurkacz the win at 56 %, with a likely score of 2-0. H. Hurkacz won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

H. Hurkacz's last five matches

D. Shapovalov's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

H. Hurkacz leads 2 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, H. Hurkacz beat A. Shevchenko (6-3 7-6), then M. Damm (4-6 6-3 6-4), then L. Harris (7-6 6-4). To reach this round, D. Shapovalov beat T. Griekspoor (6-4 7-6), then V. Kopriva (6-2 6-3), then A. Mannarino (6-7 6-3 6-2). In 2025, the tournament was won by A. Tabilo, who beat L. Musetti in the final (6-3 2-6 7-6).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, H. Hurkacz wins 54 % (125 of 233), D. Shapovalov 51 % (61 of 120). In deciding sets, H. Hurkacz wins 55 % of the time (129 matches), D. Shapovalov 50 % (82 matches). After losing the first set, H. Hurkacz turned 32 % of matches around (111 occasions), D. Shapovalov 19 % (113 occasions). After winning the first set, H. Hurkacz went on to win 83 % of matches, D. Shapovalov 85 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about H. Hurkacz – D. Shapovalov

Who is the favourite between H. Hurkacz and D. Shapovalov?
The match is over: H. Hurkacz won 2-1. Bookmakers make H. Hurkacz the favourite, priced at 1.59 against 2.16 for D. Shapovalov. Pronocast's model had H. Hurkacz winning at 56 %.
When is the H. Hurkacz – D. Shapovalov match?
On Monday, 28 September 2026 at 13:25, at the Chengdu tournament (Semi-final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between H. Hurkacz and D. Shapovalov?
Since 2020, H. Hurkacz leads 2 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for H. Hurkacz – D. Shapovalov?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Chengdu

Tournament page

Other matches on 28 September 2026

All matches on 28 September 2026