Pronocast
ProductPredictionsPricing
Create account

B. Shelton vs C. Alcaraz prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
B. SheltonC. Alcaraz
21.0 %79.0 %
Model favourite
C. Alcaraz
Probability
79 %
Predicted score
0-3
Actual score
3-2 · B. Shelton

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.5.

ATPUS OpenQuarter-finalhard court03:00
B. Shelton
B. Shelton
vs
C. Alcaraz
C. Alcaraz
2396
Elo
2655
2324
Elo on hard court
2501
9 / 10
Form (last 10)
9 / 10
4
Recent matches
4
–
Head-to-head
Edge
3.89
Odds
1.26

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

B. Shelton
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
C. Alcaraz
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
9 – 1
Wins – losses
9 – 1
22 – 5
Sets won – lost
22 – 4
4 wins
Current streak
5 wins
37-13 (74%)
2026 record
26-3 (90%)
142-66 (68%)
Record on hard court
153-37 (81%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by B. Shelton and C. Alcaraz, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

C. Alcaraz comes in with an Elo of 2655, against 2396 for B. Shelton: a 259-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 177 points in favour of C. Alcaraz. B. Shelton won 9 of the last ten matches, C. Alcaraz won 9. B. Shelton has 4 wins in the last five matches. C. Alcaraz has 5 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, C. Alcaraz leads 3 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make C. Alcaraz the favourite.

The model gave C. Alcaraz the win at 79 %, with a likely score of 3-0. B. Shelton won 3-2: prediction missed.

Recent matches

B. Shelton's last five matches

C. Alcaraz's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

C. Alcaraz leads 3 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, B. Shelton beat T. Griekspoor (1-6 6-1 7-6 6-2), then H. Hurkacz (6-3 5-7 7-6 7-5), then D. Shapovalov (7-6 6-7 6-3 6-4), then S. Tsitsipas (6-2 6-3 6-4). To reach this round, C. Alcaraz beat R. Safiullin (6-4 6-4 6-4), then J. Faria (4-6 6-0 6-3 6-2), then Y. Wu (6-3 6-4 6-1), then T. Paul (6-4 6-3 6-4). In 2025, the tournament was won by C. Alcaraz, who beat J. Sinner in the final (6-2 3-6 6-1 6-4). C. Alcaraz is therefore defending the title.

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, B. Shelton wins 55 % (105 of 191), C. Alcaraz 60 % (91 of 151). In deciding sets, B. Shelton wins 58 % of the time (106 matches), C. Alcaraz 74 % (89 matches). After losing the first set, B. Shelton turned 37 % of matches around (124 occasions), C. Alcaraz 48 % (83 occasions). After winning the first set, B. Shelton went on to win 86 % of matches, C. Alcaraz 95 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about B. Shelton – C. Alcaraz

Who is the favourite between B. Shelton and C. Alcaraz?
The match is over: B. Shelton won 3-2. Bookmakers make C. Alcaraz the favourite, priced at 1.26 against 3.89 for B. Shelton. Pronocast's model had C. Alcaraz winning at 79 %.
When is the B. Shelton – C. Alcaraz match?
On Wednesday, 9 September 2026 at 03:00, at the US Open tournament (Quarter-final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between B. Shelton and C. Alcaraz?
Since 2020, C. Alcaraz leads 3 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for B. Shelton – C. Alcaraz?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: US Open

Tournament page

Other matches on 9 September 2026

All matches on 9 September 2026