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F. Tiafoe vs A. Michelsen prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
F. TiafoeA. Michelsen
57.3 %42.7 %
Model favourite
F. Tiafoe
Probability
57 %
Predicted score
3-1
Actual score
3-2 · F. Tiafoe

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.5.

ATPUS OpenQuarter-finalhard court19:00
F. Tiafoe
F. Tiafoe
vs
A. Michelsen
A. Michelsen
2386
Elo
2278
2290
Elo on hard court
2233
9 / 10
Form (last 10)
7 / 10
4
Recent matches
4
Edge
Head-to-head
–
1.67
Odds
2.22

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

F. Tiafoe
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
A. Michelsen
  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
9 – 1
Wins – losses
7 – 3
23 – 5
Sets won – lost
20 – 7
5 wins
Current streak
4 wins
41-15 (73%)
2026 record
35-19 (65%)
129-81 (61%)
Record on hard court
110-66 (63%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by F. Tiafoe and A. Michelsen, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

F. Tiafoe comes in with an Elo of 2386, against 2278 for A. Michelsen: a 108-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 57 points in favour of F. Tiafoe. F. Tiafoe won 9 of the last ten matches, A. Michelsen won 7. F. Tiafoe has 5 wins in the last five matches. A. Michelsen has 4 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, F. Tiafoe leads 2 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make F. Tiafoe the favourite.

The model gave F. Tiafoe the win at 57 %, with a likely score of 3-1. F. Tiafoe won 3-2: prediction correct.

Recent matches

F. Tiafoe's last five matches

A. Michelsen's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

F. Tiafoe leads 2 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, F. Tiafoe beat M. Damm (6-4 4-6 3-6 6-3 6-4), then R. Sakamoto (6-3 7-6 7-5), then V. Vacherot (6-4 6-2 6-4), then D. Medvedev (7-6 6-4 7-6). To reach this round, A. Michelsen beat F. Cina (6-4 6-1 6-0), then B. Nakashima (6-3 6-4 6-4), then D. Merida Aguilar (7-6 6-4 6-3), then T. M. Etcheverry (7-6 6-4 6-4). In 2025, the tournament was won by C. Alcaraz, who beat J. Sinner in the final (6-2 3-6 6-1 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, F. Tiafoe wins 60 % (119 of 200), A. Michelsen 56 % (59 of 106). In deciding sets, F. Tiafoe wins 56 % of the time (114 matches), A. Michelsen 55 % (91 matches). After losing the first set, F. Tiafoe turned 31 % of matches around (137 occasions), A. Michelsen 28 % (111 occasions). After winning the first set, F. Tiafoe went on to win 82 % of matches, A. Michelsen 83 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about F. Tiafoe – A. Michelsen

Who is the favourite between F. Tiafoe and A. Michelsen?
The match is over: F. Tiafoe won 3-2. Bookmakers make F. Tiafoe the favourite, priced at 1.67 against 2.22 for A. Michelsen. Pronocast's model had F. Tiafoe winning at 57 %.
When is the F. Tiafoe – A. Michelsen match?
On Tuesday, 8 September 2026 at 19:00, at the US Open tournament (Quarter-final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between F. Tiafoe and A. Michelsen?
Since 2020, F. Tiafoe leads 2 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for F. Tiafoe – A. Michelsen?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: US Open

Tournament page

Other matches on 8 September 2026

All matches on 8 September 2026