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J. Pegula vs E. Navarro prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
J. PegulaE. Navarro
78.6 %21.4 %
Model favourite
J. Pegula
Probability
79 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
2-1 · J. Pegula

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.5.

WTAUS OpenQuarter-finalhard court01:25
J. Pegula
J. Pegula
vs
E. Navarro
E. Navarro
2525
Elo
2290
2440
Elo on hard court
2104
9 / 10
Form (last 10)
6 / 10
4
Recent matches
4
Edge
Head-to-head
–
1.23
Odds
4.14

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

J. Pegula
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
E. Navarro
  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. L
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
9 – 1
Wins – losses
6 – 4
18 – 6
Sets won – lost
14 – 11
4 wins
Current streak
4 wins
48-12 (80%)
2026 record
25-19 (57%)
180-69 (72%)
Record on hard court
76-58 (57%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by J. Pegula and E. Navarro, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

J. Pegula comes in with an Elo of 2525, against 2290 for E. Navarro: a 235-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 336 points in favour of J. Pegula. J. Pegula won 9 of the last ten matches, E. Navarro won 6. J. Pegula has 4 wins in the last five matches. E. Navarro has 4 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, J. Pegula leads 4 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make J. Pegula the favourite.

The model gave J. Pegula the win at 79 %, with a likely score of 2-0. J. Pegula won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

J. Pegula's last five matches

E. Navarro's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

J. Pegula leads 4 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, J. Pegula beat G. Ruse (6-3 6-2), then S. Kenin (6-3 6-1), then L. Fernandez (1-6 6-4 6-3), then S. Cirstea (6-3 6-4). To reach this round, E. Navarro beat L. Boisson (7-6 6-7 6-3), then C. McNally (3-6 6-2 6-3), then K. Muchova (6-3 7-5), then A. Kalinskaya (6-4 6-2). In 2025, the tournament was won by A. Sabalenka, who beat A. Anisimova in the final (6-3 7-6).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, J. Pegula wins 54 % (45 of 84), E. Navarro 52 % (31 of 60). In deciding sets, J. Pegula wins 66 % of the time (120 matches), E. Navarro 55 % (97 matches). After losing the first set, J. Pegula turned 36 % of matches around (118 occasions), E. Navarro 25 % (116 occasions). After winning the first set, J. Pegula went on to win 90 % of matches, E. Navarro 88 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about J. Pegula – E. Navarro

Who is the favourite between J. Pegula and E. Navarro?
The match is over: J. Pegula won 2-1. Bookmakers make J. Pegula the favourite, priced at 1.23 against 4.14 for E. Navarro. Pronocast's model had J. Pegula winning at 79 %.
When is the J. Pegula – E. Navarro match?
On Wednesday, 9 September 2026 at 01:25, at the US Open tournament (Quarter-final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between J. Pegula and E. Navarro?
Since 2020, J. Pegula leads 4 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for J. Pegula – E. Navarro?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: US Open

Tournament page

Other matches on 9 September 2026

All matches on 9 September 2026