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F. Tiafoe vs B. Shelton prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
F. TiafoeB. Shelton
28.1 %71.9 %
Model favourite
B. Shelton
Probability
72 %
Predicted score
0-3
Actual score
1-3 · B. Shelton

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPUS OpenSemi-finalhard court01:45
F. Tiafoe
F. Tiafoe
vs
B. Shelton
B. Shelton
2395
Elo
2418
2302
Elo on hard court
2346
9 / 10
Form (last 10)
9 / 10
5
Recent matches
5
–
Head-to-head
Edge
3.36
Odds
1.33

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

F. Tiafoe
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
B. Shelton
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
9 – 1
Wins – losses
9 – 1
24 – 7
Sets won – lost
23 – 7
6 wins
Current streak
5 wins
42-15 (74%)
2026 record
38-13 (75%)
130-81 (62%)
Record on hard court
143-66 (68%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by F. Tiafoe and B. Shelton, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

B. Shelton comes in with an Elo of 2418, against 2395 for F. Tiafoe: a 23-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 44 points in favour of B. Shelton. F. Tiafoe won 9 of the last ten matches, B. Shelton won 9. F. Tiafoe has 5 wins in the last five matches. B. Shelton has 5 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, B. Shelton leads 3 to 1 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make B. Shelton the favourite.

The model gave B. Shelton the win at 72 %, with a likely score of 3-0. B. Shelton won 3-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

F. Tiafoe's last five matches

B. Shelton's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

B. Shelton leads 3 to 1

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, F. Tiafoe beat M. Damm (6-4 4-6 3-6 6-3 6-4), then R. Sakamoto (6-3 7-6 7-5), then V. Vacherot (6-4 6-2 6-4), then D. Medvedev (7-6 6-4 7-6), then A. Michelsen (5-7 3-6 7-5 6-3 7-6). To reach this round, B. Shelton beat T. Griekspoor (1-6 6-1 7-6 6-2), then H. Hurkacz (6-3 5-7 7-6 7-5), then D. Shapovalov (7-6 6-7 6-3 6-4), then S. Tsitsipas (6-2 6-3 6-4), then C. Alcaraz (6-7 6-1 6-3 1-6 7-6). In 2025, the tournament was won by C. Alcaraz, who beat J. Sinner in the final (6-2 3-6 6-1 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, F. Tiafoe wins 60 % (120 of 201), B. Shelton 55 % (106 of 193). In deciding sets, F. Tiafoe wins 57 % of the time (115 matches), B. Shelton 59 % (107 matches). After losing the first set, F. Tiafoe turned 32 % of matches around (138 occasions), B. Shelton 38 % (125 occasions). After winning the first set, F. Tiafoe went on to win 82 % of matches, B. Shelton 86 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about F. Tiafoe – B. Shelton

Who is the favourite between F. Tiafoe and B. Shelton?
The match is over: B. Shelton won 3-1. Bookmakers make B. Shelton the favourite, priced at 1.33 against 3.36 for F. Tiafoe. Pronocast's model had B. Shelton winning at 72 %.
When is the F. Tiafoe – B. Shelton match?
On Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 01:45, at the US Open tournament (Semi-final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between F. Tiafoe and B. Shelton?
Since 2020, B. Shelton leads 3 to 1 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for F. Tiafoe – B. Shelton?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: US Open

Tournament page

Other matches on 12 September 2026

All matches on 12 September 2026