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C. Alcaraz vs D. Shapovalov prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
C. AlcarazD. Shapovalov
86.2 %13.8 %
Model favourite
C. Alcaraz
Probability
86 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
1-0 · C. Alcaraz

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPTokyoQuarter-finalhard court06:10
C. Alcaraz
C. Alcaraz
vs
D. Shapovalov
D. Shapovalov
2642
Elo
2223
2490
Elo on hard court
2198
8 / 10
Form (last 10)
7 / 10
2
Recent matches
6
Edge
Head-to-head
–
–
Odds
–

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

C. Alcaraz
  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
D. Shapovalov
  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
8 – 2
Wins – losses
7 – 3
22 – 8
Sets won – lost
19 – 10
3 wins
Current streak
2 wins
29-4 (88%)
2026 record
21-17 (55%)
156-38 (80%)
Record on hard court
97-70 (58%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by C. Alcaraz and D. Shapovalov, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

C. Alcaraz comes in with an Elo of 2642, against 2223 for D. Shapovalov: a 419-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 292 points in favour of C. Alcaraz. C. Alcaraz won 8 of the last ten matches, D. Shapovalov won 7. C. Alcaraz has 4 wins in the last five matches. D. Shapovalov has 4 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, C. Alcaraz leads 2 to 0 in their direct meetings. No bookmaker odds are available for this match.

The model gave C. Alcaraz the win at 86 %, with a likely score of 2-0. C. Alcaraz won 1-0: prediction correct.

Recent matches

C. Alcaraz's last five matches

D. Shapovalov's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

C. Alcaraz leads 2 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, C. Alcaraz beat A. Michelsen (7-6 4-6 6-1), then M. Arnaldi (7-6 6-1). To reach this round, D. Shapovalov beat S. Shimabukuro (7-5 6-1), then A. Tabilo (7-5 3-6 6-4). In 2025, the tournament was won by C. Alcaraz, who beat T. Fritz in the final (6-4 6-4). C. Alcaraz is therefore defending the title.

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, C. Alcaraz wins 61 % (94 of 155), D. Shapovalov 51 % (62 of 121). In deciding sets, C. Alcaraz wins 74 % of the time (92 matches), D. Shapovalov 50 % (84 matches). After losing the first set, C. Alcaraz turned 48 % of matches around (83 occasions), D. Shapovalov 19 % (113 occasions). After winning the first set, C. Alcaraz went on to win 94 % of matches, D. Shapovalov 85 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about C. Alcaraz – D. Shapovalov

Who is the favourite between C. Alcaraz and D. Shapovalov?
The match is over: C. Alcaraz won 1-0. No bookmaker odds are available for this match. Pronocast's model had C. Alcaraz winning at 86 %.
When is the C. Alcaraz – D. Shapovalov match?
On Sunday, 4 October 2026 at 06:10, at the Tokyo tournament (Quarter-final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between C. Alcaraz and D. Shapovalov?
Since 2020, C. Alcaraz leads 2 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for C. Alcaraz – D. Shapovalov?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Tokyo

Tournament page

Other matches on 4 October 2026

All matches on 4 October 2026