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C. Alcaraz vs J. Munar prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
C. AlcarazJ. Munar
88.9 %11.1 %
Model favourite
C. Alcaraz
Probability
89 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
2-1 · C. Alcaraz

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPTokyoSemi-finalhard court09:25
C. Alcaraz
C. Alcaraz
vs
J. Munar
J. Munar
2643
Elo
2206
2491
Elo on hard court
2194
8 / 10
Form (last 10)
8 / 10
3
Recent matches
5
Edge
Head-to-head
–
1.10
Odds
6.73

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

C. Alcaraz
  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
J. Munar
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
8 – 2
Wins – losses
8 – 2
22 – 8
Sets won – lost
18 – 11
3 wins
Current streak
5 wins
29-4 (88%)
2026 record
20-17 (54%)
156-38 (80%)
Record on hard court
64-64 (50%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by C. Alcaraz and J. Munar, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

C. Alcaraz comes in with an Elo of 2643, against 2206 for J. Munar: a 437-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 298 points in favour of C. Alcaraz. C. Alcaraz won 8 of the last ten matches, J. Munar won 8. C. Alcaraz has 4 wins in the last five matches. J. Munar has 5 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, C. Alcaraz leads 3 to 1 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make C. Alcaraz the favourite.

The model gave C. Alcaraz the win at 89 %, with a likely score of 2-0. C. Alcaraz won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

C. Alcaraz's last five matches

J. Munar's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

C. Alcaraz leads 3 to 1

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, C. Alcaraz beat A. Michelsen (7-6 4-6 6-1), then M. Arnaldi (7-6 6-1). To reach this round, J. Munar beat M. Giron (5-7 6-1 6-4), then A. Kovacevic (6-2 6-3), then T. Fritz (6-7 6-4 6-3), then J. Faria (6-1 6-1), then K. Jacquet (6-4 6-2). In 2025, the tournament was won by C. Alcaraz, who beat T. Fritz in the final (6-4 6-4). C. Alcaraz is therefore defending the title.

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, C. Alcaraz wins 61 % (94 of 155), J. Munar 39 % (40 of 103). In deciding sets, C. Alcaraz wins 74 % of the time (92 matches), J. Munar 43 % (104 matches). After losing the first set, C. Alcaraz turned 48 % of matches around (83 occasions), J. Munar 18 % (149 occasions). After winning the first set, C. Alcaraz went on to win 94 % of matches, J. Munar 84 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about C. Alcaraz – J. Munar

Who is the favourite between C. Alcaraz and J. Munar?
The match is over: C. Alcaraz won 2-1. Bookmakers make C. Alcaraz the favourite, priced at 1.10 against 6.73 for J. Munar. Pronocast's model had C. Alcaraz winning at 89 %.
When is the C. Alcaraz – J. Munar match?
On Monday, 5 October 2026 at 09:25, at the Tokyo tournament (Semi-final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between C. Alcaraz and J. Munar?
Since 2020, C. Alcaraz leads 3 to 1 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for C. Alcaraz – J. Munar?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Tokyo

Tournament page

Other matches on 5 October 2026

All matches on 5 October 2026