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C. Alcaraz vs J. Lehecka prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
C. AlcarazJ. Lehecka
77.5 %22.5 %
Model favourite
C. Alcaraz
Probability
77 %
Predicted score
2-0
Exact score
Actual score
2-0 · C. Alcaraz

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPTokyoFinalhard court11:15
C. Alcaraz
C. Alcaraz
vs
J. Lehecka
J. Lehecka
2645
Elo
2372
2497
Elo on hard court
2237
9 / 10
Form (last 10)
8 / 10
4
Recent matches
4
Edge
Head-to-head
–
1.27
Odds
3.73

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

C. Alcaraz
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
J. Lehecka
  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
9 – 1
Wins – losses
8 – 2
24 – 7
Sets won – lost
20 – 8
4 wins
Current streak
6 wins
30-4 (88%)
2026 record
34-16 (68%)
157-38 (81%)
Record on hard court
115-76 (60%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by C. Alcaraz and J. Lehecka, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

C. Alcaraz comes in with an Elo of 2645, against 2372 for J. Lehecka: a 273-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 260 points in favour of C. Alcaraz. C. Alcaraz won 9 of the last ten matches, J. Lehecka won 8. C. Alcaraz has 4 wins in the last five matches. J. Lehecka has 5 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, C. Alcaraz leads 3 to 1 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make C. Alcaraz the favourite.

The model gave C. Alcaraz the win at 77 %, with a likely score of 2-0. C. Alcaraz won 2-0: prediction correct.

Recent matches

C. Alcaraz's last five matches

J. Lehecka's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

C. Alcaraz leads 3 to 1

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, C. Alcaraz beat A. Michelsen (7-6 4-6 6-1), then M. Arnaldi (7-6 6-1), then J. Munar (5-7 6-3 6-1). To reach this round, J. Lehecka beat Z. Bergs (6-3 6-7 6-3), then U. Humbert (5-7 6-4 6-4), then D. Vallejo (6-1 6-1), then V. Vacherot (6-4 6-2). In 2025, the tournament was won by C. Alcaraz, who beat T. Fritz in the final (6-4 6-4). C. Alcaraz is therefore defending the title.

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, C. Alcaraz wins 61 % (94 of 155), J. Lehecka 54 % (76 of 140). In deciding sets, C. Alcaraz wins 74 % of the time (93 matches), J. Lehecka 60 % (95 matches). After losing the first set, C. Alcaraz turned 49 % of matches around (84 occasions), J. Lehecka 24 % (131 occasions). After winning the first set, C. Alcaraz went on to win 94 % of matches, J. Lehecka 87 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about C. Alcaraz – J. Lehecka

Who is the favourite between C. Alcaraz and J. Lehecka?
The match is over: C. Alcaraz won 2-0. Bookmakers make C. Alcaraz the favourite, priced at 1.27 against 3.73 for J. Lehecka. Pronocast's model had C. Alcaraz winning at 77 %.
When is the C. Alcaraz – J. Lehecka match?
On Tuesday, 6 October 2026 at 11:15, at the Tokyo tournament (Final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between C. Alcaraz and J. Lehecka?
Since 2020, C. Alcaraz leads 3 to 1 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for C. Alcaraz – J. Lehecka?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Tokyo

Tournament page

Other matches on 6 October 2026

All matches on 6 October 2026