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V. Vacherot vs A. Fils prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
V. VacherotA. Fils
22.6 %77.4 %
Model favourite
A. Fils
Probability
77 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
2-1 · V. Vacherot

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPTokyoQuarter-finalhard court09:10
V. Vacherot
V. Vacherot
vs
A. Fils
A. Fils
2240
Elo
2470
2115
Elo on hard court
2335
6 / 10
Form (last 10)
9 / 10
3
Recent matches
4
–
Head-to-head
Edge
3.70
Odds
1.18

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

V. Vacherot
  1. L
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
A. Fils
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
6 – 4
Wins – losses
9 – 1
15 – 12
Sets won – lost
19 – 7
2 wins
Current streak
4 wins
22-15 (59%)
2026 record
35-10 (78%)
65-36 (64%)
Record on hard court
94-58 (62%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by V. Vacherot and A. Fils, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

A. Fils comes in with an Elo of 2470, against 2240 for V. Vacherot: a 230-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 219 points in favour of A. Fils. V. Vacherot won 6 of the last ten matches, A. Fils won 9. V. Vacherot has 4 wins in the last five matches. A. Fils has 4 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, A. Fils leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make A. Fils the favourite.

The model gave A. Fils the win at 77 %, with a likely score of 2-0. V. Vacherot won 2-1: prediction missed.

Recent matches

V. Vacherot's last five matches

A. Fils's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

A. Fils leads 1 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, V. Vacherot beat A. Blockx (7-6 7-6), then S. Tsitsipas (4-6 7-6 6-4). To reach this round, A. Fils beat M. Damm (2-6 6-1 6-1), then K. Majchrzak (6-2 3-6 6-1), then L. van Assche (6-3 6-2), then F. Tiafoe (6-3 7-5). In 2025, the tournament was won by C. Alcaraz, who beat T. Fritz in the final (6-4 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, V. Vacherot wins 54 % (59 of 109), A. Fils 58 % (69 of 118). In deciding sets, V. Vacherot wins 60 % of the time (87 matches), A. Fils 63 % (87 matches). After losing the first set, V. Vacherot turned 34 % of matches around (95 occasions), A. Fils 29 % (113 occasions). After winning the first set, V. Vacherot went on to win 86 % of matches, A. Fils 87 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about V. Vacherot – A. Fils

Who is the favourite between V. Vacherot and A. Fils?
The match is over: V. Vacherot won 2-1. Bookmakers make A. Fils the favourite, priced at 1.18 against 3.70 for V. Vacherot. Pronocast's model had A. Fils winning at 77 %.
When is the V. Vacherot – A. Fils match?
On Sunday, 4 October 2026 at 09:10, at the Tokyo tournament (Quarter-final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between V. Vacherot and A. Fils?
Since 2020, A. Fils leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for V. Vacherot – A. Fils?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Tokyo

Tournament page

Other matches on 4 October 2026

All matches on 4 October 2026