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F. Jones vs M. Barthel prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
F. JonesM. Barthel
73.7 %26.3 %
Model favourite
F. Jones
Probability
74 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
0-2 · M. Barthel

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Women's ChallengerLjubljanaRound of 16clay12:15
F. Jones
F. Jones
vs
M. Barthel
M. Barthel
2148
Elo
1976
2165
Elo on clay
1882
8 / 10
Form (last 10)
6 / 10
5
Recent matches
2
Edge
Head-to-head
–
1.32
Odds
3.09

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

F. Jones
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
M. Barthel
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. L
  9. L
  10. W
8 – 2
Wins – losses
6 – 4
17 – 7
Sets won – lost
14 – 10
1 win
Current streak
1 win
27-14 (66%)
2026 record
12-12 (50%)
56-19 (75%)
Record on clay
22-31 (42%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by F. Jones and M. Barthel, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

F. Jones comes in with an Elo of 2148, against 1976 for M. Barthel: a 173-point edge. On clay, the gap is 283 points in favour of F. Jones. F. Jones won 8 of the last ten matches, M. Barthel won 6. F. Jones has 3 wins in the last five matches. M. Barthel has 2 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, F. Jones leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make F. Jones the favourite.

The model gave F. Jones the win at 74 %, with a likely score of 2-0. M. Barthel won 2-0: prediction missed.

Recent matches

F. Jones's last five matches

M. Barthel's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

F. Jones leads 1 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, F. Jones beat A. Senica (5-7 6-3 6-3). To reach this round, M. Barthel beat R. Zelnickova (6-0 6-4). In 2025, the tournament was won by K. Juvan, who beat S. Waltert in the final (6-4 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, F. Jones wins 63 % (19 of 30), M. Barthel 25 % (7 of 28). In deciding sets, F. Jones wins 60 % of the time (48 matches), M. Barthel 43 % (40 matches). After losing the first set, F. Jones turned 30 % of matches around (47 occasions), M. Barthel 15 % (62 occasions). After winning the first set, F. Jones went on to win 86 % of matches, M. Barthel 76 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about F. Jones – M. Barthel

Who is the favourite between F. Jones and M. Barthel?
The match is over: M. Barthel won 2-0. Bookmakers make F. Jones the favourite, priced at 1.32 against 3.09 for M. Barthel. Pronocast's model had F. Jones winning at 74 %.
When is the F. Jones – M. Barthel match?
On Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 12:15, at the Ljubljana tournament (Round of 16, clay).
What is the head-to-head between F. Jones and M. Barthel?
Since 2020, F. Jones leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for F. Jones – M. Barthel?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Ljubljana

Tournament page

Other matches on 16 September 2026

All matches on 16 September 2026