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M. Barthel vs M. Ristic prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
M. BarthelM. Ristic
47.6 %52.4 %
Model favourite
M. Ristic
Probability
52 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
2-0 · M. Barthel

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Women's ChallengerLjubljanaQuarter-finalclay10:00
M. Barthel
M. Barthel
vs
M. Ristic
M. Ristic
2003
Elo
2014
1928
Elo on clay
2007
6 / 10
Form (last 10)
8 / 10
3
Recent matches
3
Even
Head-to-head
Even
2.04
Odds
1.78

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

M. Barthel
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
M. Ristic
  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
6 – 4
Wins – losses
6 – 4
14 – 9
Sets won – lost
14 – 10
2 wins
Current streak
2 wins
13-12 (52%)
2026 record
20-14 (59%)
23-31 (43%)
Record on clay
23-18 (56%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by M. Barthel and M. Ristic, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

Both players come in with almost the same Elo (2003 against 2014): nothing separates them in the model's rating. On clay, the gap is 79 points in favour of M. Ristic. M. Barthel won 6 of the last ten matches, M. Ristic won 8. M. Barthel has 3 wins in the last five matches. M. Ristic has 3 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make M. Ristic the favourite.

The model gave M. Ristic the win at 52 %, with a likely score of 2-0. M. Barthel won 2-0: prediction missed.

Recent matches

M. Barthel's last five matches

M. Ristic's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, M. Barthel beat R. Zelnickova (6-0 6-4), then F. Jones (6-0 6-4). To reach this round, M. Ristic beat M. Colmegna (7-5 7-6), then M. Bulgaru (6-3 6-3). In 2025, the tournament was won by K. Juvan, who beat S. Waltert in the final (6-4 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, M. Barthel wins 25 % (7 of 28), M. Ristic 53 % (10 of 19). In deciding sets, M. Barthel wins 43 % of the time (40 matches), M. Ristic 53 % (17 matches). After losing the first set, M. Barthel turned 15 % of matches around (62 occasions), M. Ristic 22 % (23 occasions). After winning the first set, M. Barthel went on to win 77 % of matches, M. Ristic 85 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about M. Barthel – M. Ristic

Who is the favourite between M. Barthel and M. Ristic?
The match is over: M. Barthel won 2-0. Bookmakers make M. Ristic the favourite, priced at 1.78 against 2.04 for M. Barthel. Pronocast's model had M. Ristic winning at 52 %.
When is the M. Barthel – M. Ristic match?
On Friday, 18 September 2026 at 10:00, at the Ljubljana tournament (Quarter-final, clay).
What is the head-to-head between M. Barthel and M. Ristic?
No meeting between M. Barthel and M. Ristic appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for M. Barthel – M. Ristic?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Ljubljana

Tournament page

Other matches on 18 September 2026

All matches on 18 September 2026