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H. Gaston vs A. Rublev prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
H. GastonA. Rublev
21.4 %78.6 %
Model favourite
A. Rublev
Probability
79 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
1-2 · A. Rublev

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPHangzhouQuarter-finalhard court09:45
H. Gaston
H. Gaston
vs
A. Rublev
A. Rublev
2082
Elo
2253
2022
Elo on hard court
2112
6 / 10
Form (last 10)
6 / 10
2
Recent matches
1
–
Head-to-head
Edge
4.28
Odds
1.22

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

H. Gaston
  1. L
  2. L
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
A. Rublev
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
6 – 4
Wins – losses
6 – 4
14 – 11
Sets won – lost
16 – 12
2 wins
Current streak
1 win
28-24 (54%)
2026 record
29-17 (63%)
88-82 (52%)
Record on hard court
149-85 (64%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by H. Gaston and A. Rublev, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

A. Rublev comes in with an Elo of 2253, against 2082 for H. Gaston: a 172-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 89 points in favour of A. Rublev. H. Gaston won 6 of the last ten matches, A. Rublev won 6. H. Gaston has 4 wins in the last five matches. A. Rublev has 3 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, A. Rublev leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make A. Rublev the favourite.

The model gave A. Rublev the win at 79 %, with a likely score of 2-0. A. Rublev won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

H. Gaston's last five matches

A. Rublev's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

A. Rublev leads 1 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, H. Gaston beat S. Shimabukuro (6-4 6-4), then J. Faria (4-6 7-6 6-4). To reach this round, A. Rublev beat R. Hijikata (6-3 6-3). In 2025, the tournament was won by A. Bublik, who beat V. Royer in the final (7-6 7-6).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, H. Gaston wins 61 % (69 of 114), A. Rublev 52 % (88 of 169). In deciding sets, H. Gaston wins 54 % of the time (125 matches), A. Rublev 59 % (111 matches). After losing the first set, H. Gaston turned 24 % of matches around (160 occasions), A. Rublev 31 % (140 occasions). After winning the first set, H. Gaston went on to win 78 % of matches, A. Rublev 87 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about H. Gaston – A. Rublev

Who is the favourite between H. Gaston and A. Rublev?
The match is over: A. Rublev won 2-1. Bookmakers make A. Rublev the favourite, priced at 1.22 against 4.28 for H. Gaston. Pronocast's model had A. Rublev winning at 79 %.
When is the H. Gaston – A. Rublev match?
On Sunday, 27 September 2026 at 09:45, at the Hangzhou tournament (Quarter-final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between H. Gaston and A. Rublev?
Since 2020, A. Rublev leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for H. Gaston – A. Rublev?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Hangzhou

Tournament page

Other matches on 27 September 2026

All matches on 27 September 2026