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D. Medvedev vs A. Rublev prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
D. MedvedevA. Rublev
63.8 %36.2 %
Model favourite
D. Medvedev
Probability
64 %
Predicted score
2-0
Exact score
Actual score
2-0 · D. Medvedev

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPHangzhouFinalhard court13:40
D. Medvedev
D. Medvedev
vs
A. Rublev
A. Rublev
2313
Elo
2270
2282
Elo on hard court
2139
7 / 10
Form (last 10)
6 / 10
3
Recent matches
3
Edge
Head-to-head
–
1.44
Odds
2.49

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

D. Medvedev
  1. W
  2. L
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
A. Rublev
  1. W
  2. L
  3. L
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
7 – 3
Wins – losses
6 – 4
18 – 8
Sets won – lost
16 – 12
3 wins
Current streak
3 wins
37-16 (70%)
2026 record
31-17 (65%)
189-67 (74%)
Record on hard court
151-85 (64%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by D. Medvedev and A. Rublev, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

D. Medvedev comes in with an Elo of 2313, against 2270 for A. Rublev: a 43-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 143 points in favour of D. Medvedev. D. Medvedev won 7 of the last ten matches, A. Rublev won 6. D. Medvedev has 4 wins in the last five matches. A. Rublev has 4 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, D. Medvedev leads 3 to 2 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make D. Medvedev the favourite.

The model gave D. Medvedev the win at 64 %, with a likely score of 2-0. D. Medvedev won 2-0: prediction correct.

Recent matches

D. Medvedev's last five matches

A. Rublev's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

D. Medvedev leads 3 to 2

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, D. Medvedev beat V. Royer (7-6 6-3), then C. Wong (6-3 6-7 6-3), then R. Safiullin (7-5 6-4). To reach this round, A. Rublev beat R. Hijikata (6-3 6-3), then H. Gaston (6-7 7-6 6-1), then K. Jacquet (7-6 6-1). In 2025, the tournament was won by A. Bublik, who beat V. Royer in the final (7-6 7-6).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, D. Medvedev wins 53 % (81 of 154), A. Rublev 52 % (90 of 172). In deciding sets, D. Medvedev wins 59 % of the time (104 matches), A. Rublev 60 % (112 matches). After losing the first set, D. Medvedev turned 34 % of matches around (119 occasions), A. Rublev 31 % (141 occasions). After winning the first set, D. Medvedev went on to win 91 % of matches, A. Rublev 87 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about D. Medvedev – A. Rublev

Who is the favourite between D. Medvedev and A. Rublev?
The match is over: D. Medvedev won 2-0. Bookmakers make D. Medvedev the favourite, priced at 1.44 against 2.49 for A. Rublev. Pronocast's model had D. Medvedev winning at 64 %.
When is the D. Medvedev – A. Rublev match?
On Tuesday, 29 September 2026 at 13:40, at the Hangzhou tournament (Final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between D. Medvedev and A. Rublev?
Since 2020, D. Medvedev leads 3 to 2 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for D. Medvedev – A. Rublev?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Hangzhou

Tournament page

Other matches on 29 September 2026

All matches on 29 September 2026