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J. Ortenzi vs C. Paquet prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
J. OrtenziC. Paquet
39.5 %60.5 %
Model favourite
C. Paquet
Probability
61 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
2-0 · J. Ortenzi

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

WTASao PauloRound of 32hard court20:05
J. Ortenzi
J. Ortenzi
vs
C. Paquet
C. Paquet
1871
Elo
1800
1616
Elo on hard court
1764
3 / 10
Form (last 10)
3 / 10
1
Recent matches
3
Even
Head-to-head
Even
2.31
Odds
1.59

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

J. Ortenzi
  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. L
  9. L
  10. L
C. Paquet
  1. L
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
3 – 7
Wins – losses
5 – 5
8 – 16
Sets won – lost
13 – 12
4 losses
Current streak
2 wins
9-8 (53%)
2026 record
12-14 (46%)
1-4 (20%)
Record on hard court
23-50 (32%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by J. Ortenzi and C. Paquet, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

J. Ortenzi comes in with an Elo of 1871, against 1800 for C. Paquet: a 71-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 148 points in favour of C. Paquet. J. Ortenzi won 3 of the last ten matches, C. Paquet won 3. J. Ortenzi has one win in the last five matches. C. Paquet has 3 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make C. Paquet the favourite.

The model gave C. Paquet the win at 61 %, with a likely score of 2-0. J. Ortenzi won 2-0: prediction missed.

Recent matches

J. Ortenzi's last five matches

C. Paquet's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

This is J. Ortenzi's first match of the tournament. To reach this round, C. Paquet beat M. Capurro Taborda (7-5 1-6 6-2), then J. Mikulskyte (6-3 6-4). In 2025, the tournament was won by T. Rakotomanga Rajaonah, who beat J. Tjen in the final (6-3 6-4).

Key numbers

In deciding sets, J. Ortenzi wins 46 % of the time (13 matches), C. Paquet 30 % (67 matches). After losing the first set, J. Ortenzi turned 18 % of matches around (22 occasions), C. Paquet 12 % (91 occasions). After winning the first set, J. Ortenzi went on to win 77 % of matches, C. Paquet 64 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about J. Ortenzi – C. Paquet

Who is the favourite between J. Ortenzi and C. Paquet?
The match is over: J. Ortenzi won 2-0. Bookmakers make C. Paquet the favourite, priced at 1.59 against 2.31 for J. Ortenzi. Pronocast's model had C. Paquet winning at 61 %.
When is the J. Ortenzi – C. Paquet match?
On Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 20:05, at the Sao Paulo tournament (Round of 32, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between J. Ortenzi and C. Paquet?
No meeting between J. Ortenzi and C. Paquet appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for J. Ortenzi – C. Paquet?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Sao Paulo

Tournament page

Other matches on 16 September 2026

All matches on 16 September 2026