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J. Ostapenko vs P. Badosa prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
J. OstapenkoP. Badosa
40.8 %59.2 %
Model favourite
P. Badosa
Probability
59 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
2-0 · J. Ostapenko

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

WTABeijingRound of 64hard court07:25
J. Ostapenko
J. Ostapenko
vs
P. Badosa
P. Badosa
2214
Elo
2279
2026
Elo on hard court
2147
6 / 10
Form (last 10)
7 / 10
2
Recent matches
2
Edge
Head-to-head
–
2.34
Odds
1.66

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

J. Ostapenko
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. L
  8. L
  9. W
  10. L
P. Badosa
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
6 – 4
Wins – losses
7 – 3
13 – 10
Sets won – lost
15 – 8
1 loss
Current streak
1 win
22-16 (58%)
2026 record
27-17 (61%)
88-68 (56%)
Record on hard court
76-39 (66%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by J. Ostapenko and P. Badosa, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

P. Badosa comes in with an Elo of 2279, against 2214 for J. Ostapenko: a 64-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 121 points in favour of P. Badosa. J. Ostapenko won 6 of the last ten matches, P. Badosa won 7. J. Ostapenko has one win in the last five matches. P. Badosa has 4 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, J. Ostapenko leads 2 to 1 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make P. Badosa the favourite.

The model gave P. Badosa the win at 59 %, with a likely score of 2-0. J. Ostapenko won 2-0: prediction missed.

Recent matches

J. Ostapenko's last five matches

P. Badosa's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

J. Ostapenko leads 2 to 1

Road through the tournament

This is J. Ostapenko's first match of the tournament. To reach this round, P. Badosa beat D. Kasatkina (4-6 7-6 6-4). In 2025, the tournament was won by A. Anisimova, who beat L. Noskova in the final (6-0 2-6 6-2).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, J. Ostapenko wins 51 % (25 of 49), P. Badosa 63 % (39 of 62). In deciding sets, J. Ostapenko wins 61 % of the time (97 matches), P. Badosa 57 % (74 matches). After losing the first set, J. Ostapenko turned 31 % of matches around (104 occasions), P. Badosa 32 % (74 occasions). After winning the first set, J. Ostapenko went on to win 82 % of matches, P. Badosa 86 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about J. Ostapenko – P. Badosa

Who is the favourite between J. Ostapenko and P. Badosa?
The match is over: J. Ostapenko won 2-0. Bookmakers make P. Badosa the favourite, priced at 1.66 against 2.34 for J. Ostapenko. Pronocast's model had P. Badosa winning at 59 %.
When is the J. Ostapenko – P. Badosa match?
On Saturday, 3 October 2026 at 07:25, at the Beijing tournament (Round of 64, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between J. Ostapenko and P. Badosa?
Since 2020, J. Ostapenko leads 2 to 1 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for J. Ostapenko – P. Badosa?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Beijing

Tournament page

Other matches on 3 October 2026

All matches on 3 October 2026