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D. Shapovalov vs A. Tabilo prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
D. ShapovalovA. Tabilo
58.3 %41.7 %
Model favourite
D. Shapovalov
Probability
58 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
2-1 · D. Shapovalov

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPTokyoRound of 16hard court04:00
D. Shapovalov
D. Shapovalov
vs
A. Tabilo
A. Tabilo
2209
Elo
2194
2185
Elo on hard court
2110
7 / 10
Form (last 10)
4 / 10
5
Recent matches
3
Even
Head-to-head
Even
1.58
Odds
2.12

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

D. Shapovalov
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
A. Tabilo
  1. L
  2. L
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. L
  9. L
  10. W
7 – 3
Wins – losses
4 – 6
19 – 9
Sets won – lost
12 – 15
1 win
Current streak
1 win
20-17 (54%)
2026 record
38-26 (59%)
96-70 (58%)
Record on hard court
78-60 (57%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by D. Shapovalov and A. Tabilo, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

D. Shapovalov comes in with an Elo of 2209, against 2194 for A. Tabilo: a 15-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 74 points in favour of D. Shapovalov. D. Shapovalov won 7 of the last ten matches, A. Tabilo won 4. D. Shapovalov has 4 wins in the last five matches. A. Tabilo has 2 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make D. Shapovalov the favourite.

The model gave D. Shapovalov the win at 58 %, with a likely score of 2-0. D. Shapovalov won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

D. Shapovalov's last five matches

A. Tabilo's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, D. Shapovalov beat S. Shimabukuro (7-5 6-1). To reach this round, A. Tabilo beat T. Paul (6-1 6-2). In 2025, the tournament was won by C. Alcaraz, who beat T. Fritz in the final (6-4 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, D. Shapovalov wins 51 % (62 of 121), A. Tabilo 48 % (68 of 141). In deciding sets, D. Shapovalov wins 49 % of the time (83 matches), A. Tabilo 54 % (121 matches). After losing the first set, D. Shapovalov turned 19 % of matches around (113 occasions), A. Tabilo 27 % (142 occasions). After winning the first set, D. Shapovalov went on to win 85 % of matches, A. Tabilo 82 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about D. Shapovalov – A. Tabilo

Who is the favourite between D. Shapovalov and A. Tabilo?
The match is over: D. Shapovalov won 2-1. Bookmakers make D. Shapovalov the favourite, priced at 1.58 against 2.12 for A. Tabilo. Pronocast's model had D. Shapovalov winning at 58 %.
When is the D. Shapovalov – A. Tabilo match?
On Saturday, 3 October 2026 at 04:00, at the Tokyo tournament (Round of 16, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between D. Shapovalov and A. Tabilo?
No meeting between D. Shapovalov and A. Tabilo appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for D. Shapovalov – A. Tabilo?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Tokyo

Tournament page

Other matches on 3 October 2026

All matches on 3 October 2026