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K. Day vs L. Samsonova prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
K. DayL. Samsonova
34.5 %65.5 %
Model favourite
L. Samsonova
Probability
66 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
1-2 · L. Samsonova

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

WTAGuadalajaraRound of 16hard court02:45
K. Day
K. Day
vs
L. Samsonova
L. Samsonova
2088
Elo
2213
2003
Elo on hard court
2090
6 / 10
Form (last 10)
6 / 10
3
Recent matches
1
Even
Head-to-head
Even
–
Odds
–

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

K. Day
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. L
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
L. Samsonova
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. L
  9. L
  10. W
6 – 4
Wins – losses
6 – 4
13 – 10
Sets won – lost
15 – 10
1 win
Current streak
1 win
16-13 (55%)
2026 record
17-21 (45%)
30-37 (45%)
Record on hard court
43-43 (50%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by K. Day and L. Samsonova, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

L. Samsonova comes in with an Elo of 2213, against 2088 for K. Day: a 126-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 87 points in favour of L. Samsonova. K. Day won 6 of the last ten matches, L. Samsonova won 6. K. Day has 2 wins in the last five matches. L. Samsonova has 2 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. No bookmaker odds are available for this match.

The model gave L. Samsonova the win at 66 %, with a likely score of 2-0. L. Samsonova won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

K. Day's last five matches

L. Samsonova's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, K. Day beat E. Kalieva (7-6 6-4). To reach this round, L. Samsonova beat E. Jacquemot (7-6 6-2). In 2025, the tournament was won by I. Jovic, who beat E. Arango in the final (6-4 6-1).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, K. Day wins 38 % (10 of 26), L. Samsonova 45 % (18 of 40). In deciding sets, K. Day wins 37 % of the time (38 matches), L. Samsonova 42 % (52 matches). After losing the first set, K. Day turned 11 % of matches around (46 occasions), L. Samsonova 23 % (61 occasions). After winning the first set, K. Day went on to win 76 % of matches, L. Samsonova 77 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about K. Day – L. Samsonova

Who is the favourite between K. Day and L. Samsonova?
The match is over: L. Samsonova won 2-1. No bookmaker odds are available for this match. Pronocast's model had L. Samsonova winning at 66 %.
When is the K. Day – L. Samsonova match?
On Thursday, 17 September 2026 at 02:45, at the Guadalajara tournament (Round of 16, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between K. Day and L. Samsonova?
No meeting between K. Day and L. Samsonova appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for K. Day – L. Samsonova?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Guadalajara

Tournament page

Other matches on 17 September 2026

All matches on 17 September 2026