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M. Kostyuk vs L. Samsonova prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
M. KostyukL. Samsonova
78.4 %21.6 %
Model favourite
M. Kostyuk
Probability
78 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
1-2 · L. Samsonova

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

WTAGuadalajaraQuarter-finalhard court01:55
M. Kostyuk
M. Kostyuk
vs
L. Samsonova
L. Samsonova
2486
Elo
2224
2289
Elo on hard court
2105
7 / 10
Form (last 10)
6 / 10
2
Recent matches
2
Even
Head-to-head
Even
1.24
Odds
4.10

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

M. Kostyuk
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. L
L. Samsonova
  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
7 – 3
Wins – losses
6 – 4
16 – 8
Sets won – lost
15 – 11
1 loss
Current streak
2 wins
36-9 (80%)
2026 record
18-21 (46%)
111-67 (62%)
Record on hard court
44-43 (51%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by M. Kostyuk and L. Samsonova, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

M. Kostyuk comes in with an Elo of 2486, against 2224 for L. Samsonova: a 262-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 183 points in favour of M. Kostyuk. M. Kostyuk won 7 of the last ten matches, L. Samsonova won 6. M. Kostyuk has 3 wins in the last five matches. L. Samsonova has 3 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make M. Kostyuk the favourite.

The model gave M. Kostyuk the win at 78 %, with a likely score of 2-0. L. Samsonova won 2-1: prediction missed.

Recent matches

M. Kostyuk's last five matches

L. Samsonova's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

This is M. Kostyuk's first match of the tournament. To reach this round, L. Samsonova beat E. Jacquemot (7-6 6-2), then K. Day (7-6 2-6 7-6). In 2025, the tournament was won by I. Jovic, who beat E. Arango in the final (6-4 6-1).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, M. Kostyuk wins 55 % (39 of 71), L. Samsonova 48 % (20 of 42). In deciding sets, M. Kostyuk wins 61 % of the time (92 matches), L. Samsonova 43 % (53 matches). After losing the first set, M. Kostyuk turned 28 % of matches around (109 occasions), L. Samsonova 23 % (61 occasions). After winning the first set, M. Kostyuk went on to win 86 % of matches, L. Samsonova 77 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about M. Kostyuk – L. Samsonova

Who is the favourite between M. Kostyuk and L. Samsonova?
The match is over: L. Samsonova won 2-1. Bookmakers make M. Kostyuk the favourite, priced at 1.24 against 4.10 for L. Samsonova. Pronocast's model had M. Kostyuk winning at 78 %.
When is the M. Kostyuk – L. Samsonova match?
On Friday, 18 September 2026 at 01:55, at the Guadalajara tournament (Quarter-final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between M. Kostyuk and L. Samsonova?
No meeting between M. Kostyuk and L. Samsonova appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for M. Kostyuk – L. Samsonova?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Guadalajara

Tournament page

Other matches on 18 September 2026

All matches on 18 September 2026