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L. Giustino vs M. Donald prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
L. GiustinoM. Donald
52.4 %47.6 %
Model favourite
L. Giustino
Probability
52 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
1-1 · M. Donald

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerBari (Italy) - QualificationRound of 1613:30
L. Giustino
L. Giustino
vs
M. Donald
M. Donald
1920
Elo
1835
7 / 10
Form (last 10)
6 / 10
4
Recent matches
5
Even
Head-to-head
Even
1.73
Odds
1.93

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

L. Giustino
  1. L
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
M. Donald
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. L
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
6 – 4
Wins – losses
6 – 4
13 – 13
Sets won – lost
13 – 10
1 win
Current streak
3 wins
26-22 (54%)
2026 record
16-12 (57%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by L. Giustino and M. Donald, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

L. Giustino comes in with an Elo of 1920, against 1835 for M. Donald: a 84-point edge. L. Giustino won 7 of the last ten matches, M. Donald won 6. L. Giustino has 4 wins in the last five matches. M. Donald has 4 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make L. Giustino the favourite.

The model gave L. Giustino the win at 52 %, with a likely score of 2-0. M. Donald won 1-1: prediction missed.

Recent matches

L. Giustino's last five matches

M. Donald's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, L. Giustino beat J. Sperle (7-5 6-7 6-4). To reach this round, M. Donald beat C. Cordoba (6-1 6-1), then D. Sakellaridis (7-5 7-6), then O. Wallin (6-3 7-5).

Key numbers

In deciding sets, L. Giustino wins 47 % of the time (101 matches), M. Donald 50 % (10 matches). After losing the first set, L. Giustino turned 12 % of matches around (141 occasions), M. Donald 18 % (17 occasions). After winning the first set, L. Giustino went on to win 81 % of matches, M. Donald 78 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about L. Giustino – M. Donald

Who is the favourite between L. Giustino and M. Donald?
The match is over: M. Donald won 1-1. Bookmakers make L. Giustino the favourite, priced at 1.73 against 1.93 for M. Donald. Pronocast's model had L. Giustino winning at 52 %.
When is the L. Giustino – M. Donald match?
On Thursday, 1 October 2026 at 13:30, at the Bari (Italy) - Qualification tournament (Round of 16, Unknown).
What is the head-to-head between L. Giustino and M. Donald?
No meeting between L. Giustino and M. Donald appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for L. Giustino – M. Donald?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Bari (Italy) - Qualification

Tournament page

Other matches on 1 October 2026

All matches on 1 October 2026