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M. Echargui vs K. Poling prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
M. EcharguiK. Poling
68.4 %31.6 %
Model favourite
M. Echargui
Probability
68 %
Predicted score
2-0
Exact score
Actual score
2-0 · M. Echargui

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerSt. TropezQualifyinghard court12:20
M. Echargui
M. Echargui
vs
K. Poling
K. Poling
1863
Elo
1723
1842
Elo on hard court
1713
6 / 10
Form (last 10)
6 / 10
5
Recent matches
2
Even
Head-to-head
Even
–
Odds
–

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

M. Echargui
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. L
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
K. Poling
  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. L
  6. L
  7. L
  8. L
  9. L
  10. W
6 – 4
Wins – losses
3 – 7
14 – 11
Sets won – lost
10 – 15
2 wins
Current streak
1 win
15-30 (33%)
2026 record
14-16 (47%)
42-46 (48%)
Record on hard court
26-28 (48%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by M. Echargui and K. Poling, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

M. Echargui comes in with an Elo of 1863, against 1723 for K. Poling: a 140-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 130 points in favour of M. Echargui. M. Echargui won 6 of the last ten matches, K. Poling won 6. M. Echargui has 4 wins in the last five matches. K. Poling has one win in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. No bookmaker odds are available for this match.

The model gave M. Echargui the win at 68 %, with a likely score of 2-0. M. Echargui won 2-0: prediction correct.

Recent matches

M. Echargui's last five matches

K. Poling's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, M. Echargui beat L. Potenza (6-7 6-4 6-3). To reach this round, K. Poling beat Y. Ghazouani Durand (6-2 6-1). In 2025, the tournament was won by M. Echargui, who beat D. Added in the final (6-3 6-4). M. Echargui is therefore defending the title.

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, M. Echargui wins 51 % (39 of 77), K. Poling 31 % (9 of 29). In deciding sets, M. Echargui wins 41 % of the time (80 matches), K. Poling 58 % (26 matches). After losing the first set, M. Echargui turned 15 % of matches around (101 occasions), K. Poling 25 % (40 occasions). After winning the first set, M. Echargui went on to win 77 % of matches, K. Poling 83 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about M. Echargui – K. Poling

Who is the favourite between M. Echargui and K. Poling?
The match is over: M. Echargui won 2-0. No bookmaker odds are available for this match. Pronocast's model had M. Echargui winning at 68 %.
When is the M. Echargui – K. Poling match?
On Monday, 21 September 2026 at 12:20, at the St. Tropez tournament (Qualifying, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between M. Echargui and K. Poling?
No meeting between M. Echargui and K. Poling appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for M. Echargui – K. Poling?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: St. Tropez

Tournament page

Other matches on 21 September 2026

All matches on 21 September 2026