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M. Stoiana vs C. Liu prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
M. StoianaC. Liu
46.4 %53.6 %
Model favourite
C. Liu
Probability
54 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
2-0 · M. Stoiana

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

WTASao PauloRound of 32hard court17:50
M. Stoiana
M. Stoiana
vs
C. Liu
C. Liu
2082
Elo
2145
1958
Elo on hard court
2063
6 / 10
Form (last 10)
7 / 10
3
Recent matches
5
Even
Head-to-head
Even
2.08
Odds
1.73

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

M. Stoiana
  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. L
C. Liu
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. L
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
6 – 4
Wins – losses
7 – 3
14 – 11
Sets won – lost
15 – 7
1 loss
Current streak
5 wins
22-18 (55%)
2026 record
20-12 (63%)
13-15 (46%)
Record on hard court
69-59 (54%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by M. Stoiana and C. Liu, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

C. Liu comes in with an Elo of 2145, against 2082 for M. Stoiana: a 62-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 105 points in favour of C. Liu. M. Stoiana won 6 of the last ten matches, C. Liu won 7. M. Stoiana has 3 wins in the last five matches. C. Liu has 5 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make C. Liu the favourite.

The model gave C. Liu the win at 54 %, with a likely score of 2-0. M. Stoiana won 2-0: prediction missed.

Recent matches

M. Stoiana's last five matches

C. Liu's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

This is M. Stoiana's first match of the tournament. This is C. Liu's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by T. Rakotomanga Rajaonah, who beat J. Tjen in the final (6-3 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, M. Stoiana wins 69 % (11 of 16), C. Liu 52 % (24 of 46). In deciding sets, M. Stoiana wins 46 % of the time (24 matches), C. Liu 53 % (68 matches). After losing the first set, M. Stoiana turned 32 % of matches around (19 occasions), C. Liu 23 % (98 occasions). After winning the first set, M. Stoiana went on to win 67 % of matches, C. Liu 87 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about M. Stoiana – C. Liu

Who is the favourite between M. Stoiana and C. Liu?
The match is over: M. Stoiana won 2-0. Bookmakers make C. Liu the favourite, priced at 1.73 against 2.08 for M. Stoiana. Pronocast's model had C. Liu winning at 54 %.
When is the M. Stoiana – C. Liu match?
On Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 17:50, at the Sao Paulo tournament (Round of 32, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between M. Stoiana and C. Liu?
No meeting between M. Stoiana and C. Liu appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for M. Stoiana – C. Liu?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Sao Paulo

Tournament page

Other matches on 16 September 2026

All matches on 16 September 2026