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P. Badosa vs D. Kasatkina prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
P. BadosaD. Kasatkina
69.6 %30.4 %
Model favourite
P. Badosa
Probability
70 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
2-1 · P. Badosa

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

WTABeijingRound of 128hard court07:30
P. Badosa
P. Badosa
vs
D. Kasatkina
D. Kasatkina
2270
Elo
2109
2136
Elo on hard court
1994
7 / 10
Form (last 10)
4 / 10
4
Recent matches
1
Edge
Head-to-head
–
1.42
Odds
2.87

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

P. Badosa
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. L
D. Kasatkina
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. L
  9. L
  10. L
7 – 3
Wins – losses
4 – 6
15 – 8
Sets won – lost
10 – 16
1 loss
Current streak
4 losses
26-17 (60%)
2026 record
20-19 (51%)
75-39 (66%)
Record on hard court
102-80 (56%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by P. Badosa and D. Kasatkina, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

P. Badosa comes in with an Elo of 2270, against 2109 for D. Kasatkina: a 161-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 142 points in favour of P. Badosa. P. Badosa won 7 of the last ten matches, D. Kasatkina won 4. P. Badosa has 3 wins in the last five matches. D. Kasatkina has one win in the last five matches. Since 2020, P. Badosa leads 4 to 3 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make P. Badosa the favourite.

The model gave P. Badosa the win at 70 %, with a likely score of 2-0. P. Badosa won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

P. Badosa's last five matches

D. Kasatkina's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

P. Badosa leads 4 to 3

Road through the tournament

This is P. Badosa's first match of the tournament. This is D. Kasatkina's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by A. Anisimova, who beat L. Noskova in the final (6-0 2-6 6-2).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, P. Badosa wins 62 % (38 of 61), D. Kasatkina 42 % (25 of 59). In deciding sets, P. Badosa wins 56 % of the time (73 matches), D. Kasatkina 57 % (108 matches). After losing the first set, P. Badosa turned 32 % of matches around (73 occasions), D. Kasatkina 28 % (137 occasions). After winning the first set, P. Badosa went on to win 86 % of matches, D. Kasatkina 87 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about P. Badosa – D. Kasatkina

Who is the favourite between P. Badosa and D. Kasatkina?
The match is over: P. Badosa won 2-1. Bookmakers make P. Badosa the favourite, priced at 1.42 against 2.87 for D. Kasatkina. Pronocast's model had P. Badosa winning at 70 %.
When is the P. Badosa – D. Kasatkina match?
On Thursday, 1 October 2026 at 07:30, at the Beijing tournament (Round of 128, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between P. Badosa and D. Kasatkina?
Since 2020, P. Badosa leads 4 to 3 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for P. Badosa – D. Kasatkina?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Beijing

Tournament page

Other matches on 1 October 2026

All matches on 1 October 2026