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A. De Minaur vs A. Rublev prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
A. De MinaurA. Rublev
53.8 %46.2 %
Model favourite
A. De Minaur
Probability
54 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
2-1 · A. De Minaur

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPBeijingQuarter-finalhard court09:10
A. De Minaur
A. De Minaur
vs
A. Rublev
A. Rublev
2350
Elo
2277
2262
Elo on hard court
2152
8 / 10
Form (last 10)
7 / 10
4
Recent matches
6
–
Head-to-head
Edge
1.71
Odds
2.00

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

A. De Minaur
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
A. Rublev
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
8 – 2
Wins – losses
7 – 3
17 – 8
Sets won – lost
16 – 12
5 wins
Current streak
2 wins
38-18 (68%)
2026 record
33-18 (65%)
147-78 (65%)
Record on hard court
153-86 (64%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by A. De Minaur and A. Rublev, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

A. De Minaur comes in with an Elo of 2350, against 2277 for A. Rublev: a 73-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 110 points in favour of A. De Minaur. A. De Minaur won 8 of the last ten matches, A. Rublev won 7. A. De Minaur has 5 wins in the last five matches. A. Rublev has 4 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, A. Rublev leads 4 to 2 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make A. De Minaur the favourite.

The model gave A. De Minaur the win at 54 %, with a likely score of 2-0. A. De Minaur won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

A. De Minaur's last five matches

A. Rublev's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

A. Rublev leads 4 to 2

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, A. De Minaur beat M. Navone (7-6 6-2), then Q. Halys (3-6 7-6 7-5). To reach this round, A. Rublev beat T. Griekspoor (6-4 5-7 7-6), then R. Safiullin (6-2 3-6 6-4). In 2025, the tournament was won by J. Sinner, who beat L. Tien in the final (6-2 6-2).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, A. De Minaur wins 59 % (73 of 123), A. Rublev 53 % (91 of 173). In deciding sets, A. De Minaur wins 59 % of the time (102 matches), A. Rublev 61 % (114 matches). After losing the first set, A. De Minaur turned 29 % of matches around (138 occasions), A. Rublev 31 % (142 occasions). After winning the first set, A. De Minaur went on to win 88 % of matches, A. Rublev 87 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about A. De Minaur – A. Rublev

Who is the favourite between A. De Minaur and A. Rublev?
The match is over: A. De Minaur won 2-1. Bookmakers make A. De Minaur the favourite, priced at 1.71 against 2.00 for A. Rublev. Pronocast's model had A. De Minaur winning at 54 %.
When is the A. De Minaur – A. Rublev match?
On Sunday, 4 October 2026 at 09:10, at the Beijing tournament (Quarter-final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between A. De Minaur and A. Rublev?
Since 2020, A. Rublev leads 4 to 2 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for A. De Minaur – A. Rublev?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Beijing

Tournament page

Other matches on 4 October 2026

All matches on 4 October 2026