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N. Djokovic vs A. De Minaur prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
N. DjokovicA. De Minaur
65.3 %34.7 %
Model favourite
N. Djokovic
Probability
65 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
1-0 · N. Djokovic

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPBeijingFinalhard court13:15
N. Djokovic
N. Djokovic
vs
A. De Minaur
A. De Minaur
2466
Elo
2360
2364
Elo on hard court
2273
7 / 10
Form (last 10)
8 / 10
3
Recent matches
4
Edge
Head-to-head
–
1.52
Odds
2.51

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

N. Djokovic
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. L
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
A. De Minaur
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
7 – 3
Wins – losses
8 – 2
21 – 14
Sets won – lost
17 – 8
3 wins
Current streak
6 wins
16-7 (70%)
2026 record
39-18 (68%)
116-22 (84%)
Record on hard court
148-78 (65%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by N. Djokovic and A. De Minaur, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

N. Djokovic comes in with an Elo of 2466, against 2360 for A. De Minaur: a 106-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 91 points in favour of N. Djokovic. N. Djokovic won 7 of the last ten matches, A. De Minaur won 8. N. Djokovic has 3 wins in the last five matches. A. De Minaur has 5 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, N. Djokovic leads 3 to 1 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make N. Djokovic the favourite.

The model gave N. Djokovic the win at 65 %, with a likely score of 2-0. N. Djokovic won 1-0: prediction correct.

Recent matches

N. Djokovic's last five matches

A. De Minaur's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

N. Djokovic leads 3 to 1

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, N. Djokovic beat N. Borges (6-3 7-6), then Y. Bu (4-6 7-6 6-2), then A. Zverev (4-6 6-4 6-4). To reach this round, A. De Minaur beat M. Navone (7-6 6-2), then Q. Halys (3-6 7-6 7-5), then A. Rublev (1-6 6-2 6-3). In 2025, the tournament was won by J. Sinner, who beat L. Tien in the final (6-2 6-2).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, N. Djokovic wins 68 % (84 of 123), A. De Minaur 59 % (73 of 123). In deciding sets, N. Djokovic wins 64 % of the time (58 matches), A. De Minaur 59 % (103 matches). After losing the first set, N. Djokovic turned 52 % of matches around (71 occasions), A. De Minaur 29 % (139 occasions). After winning the first set, N. Djokovic went on to win 94 % of matches, A. De Minaur 88 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about N. Djokovic – A. De Minaur

Who is the favourite between N. Djokovic and A. De Minaur?
The match is over: N. Djokovic won 1-0. Bookmakers make N. Djokovic the favourite, priced at 1.52 against 2.51 for A. De Minaur. Pronocast's model had N. Djokovic winning at 65 %.
When is the N. Djokovic – A. De Minaur match?
On Tuesday, 6 October 2026 at 13:15, at the Beijing tournament (Final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between N. Djokovic and A. De Minaur?
Since 2020, N. Djokovic leads 3 to 1 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for N. Djokovic – A. De Minaur?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Beijing

Tournament page

Other matches on 6 October 2026

All matches on 6 October 2026