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N. Djokovic vs D. Medvedev prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
N. DjokovicD. Medvedev
42.3 %57.7 %
Model favourite
D. Medvedev
Probability
58 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
1-0 · N. Djokovic

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPBeijingSemi-finalhard court13:25
N. Djokovic
N. Djokovic
vs
D. Medvedev
D. Medvedev
2466
Elo
2353
2364
Elo on hard court
2312
7 / 10
Form (last 10)
9 / 10
3
Recent matches
7
Edge
Head-to-head
–
2.25
Odds
1.63

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

N. Djokovic
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. L
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
D. Medvedev
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
7 – 3
Wins – losses
9 – 1
21 – 14
Sets won – lost
20 – 4
3 wins
Current streak
7 wins
16-7 (70%)
2026 record
41-16 (72%)
116-22 (84%)
Record on hard court
193-67 (74%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by N. Djokovic and D. Medvedev, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

N. Djokovic comes in with an Elo of 2466, against 2353 for D. Medvedev: a 113-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 51 points in favour of N. Djokovic. N. Djokovic won 7 of the last ten matches, D. Medvedev won 9. N. Djokovic has 3 wins in the last five matches. D. Medvedev has 5 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, N. Djokovic leads 4 to 2 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make D. Medvedev the favourite.

The model gave D. Medvedev the win at 58 %, with a likely score of 2-0. N. Djokovic won 1-0: prediction missed.

Recent matches

N. Djokovic's last five matches

D. Medvedev's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

N. Djokovic leads 4 to 2

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, N. Djokovic beat N. Borges (6-3 7-6), then Y. Bu (4-6 7-6 6-2), then A. Zverev (4-6 6-4 6-4). To reach this round, D. Medvedev beat P. Carreno-Busta (6-4 6-2), then J-L. Struff (6-4 6-3), then F. Cerundolo (7-6 6-3). In 2025, the tournament was won by J. Sinner, who beat L. Tien in the final (6-2 6-2).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, N. Djokovic wins 68 % (84 of 123), D. Medvedev 53 % (82 of 155). In deciding sets, N. Djokovic wins 64 % of the time (58 matches), D. Medvedev 59 % (104 matches). After losing the first set, N. Djokovic turned 52 % of matches around (71 occasions), D. Medvedev 34 % (119 occasions). After winning the first set, N. Djokovic went on to win 94 % of matches, D. Medvedev 91 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about N. Djokovic – D. Medvedev

Who is the favourite between N. Djokovic and D. Medvedev?
The match is over: N. Djokovic won 1-0. Bookmakers make D. Medvedev the favourite, priced at 1.63 against 2.25 for N. Djokovic. Pronocast's model had D. Medvedev winning at 58 %.
When is the N. Djokovic – D. Medvedev match?
On Monday, 5 October 2026 at 13:25, at the Beijing tournament (Semi-final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between N. Djokovic and D. Medvedev?
Since 2020, N. Djokovic leads 4 to 2 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for N. Djokovic – D. Medvedev?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Beijing

Tournament page

Other matches on 5 October 2026

All matches on 5 October 2026