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A. De Minaur vs H. Hurkacz prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
A. De MinaurH. Hurkacz
54.8 %45.2 %
Model favourite
A. De Minaur
Probability
55 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
1-0 · A. De Minaur

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPBeijingSemi-finalhard court11:30
A. De Minaur
A. De Minaur
vs
H. Hurkacz
H. Hurkacz
2360
Elo
2331
2273
Elo on hard court
2196
8 / 10
Form (last 10)
8 / 10
4
Recent matches
8
Edge
Head-to-head
–
1.69
Odds
2.14

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

A. De Minaur
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
H. Hurkacz
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
8 – 2
Wins – losses
8 – 2
17 – 8
Sets won – lost
18 – 10
6 wins
Current streak
3 wins
39-18 (68%)
2026 record
32-19 (63%)
148-78 (65%)
Record on hard court
127-76 (63%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by A. De Minaur and H. Hurkacz, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

A. De Minaur comes in with an Elo of 2360, against 2331 for H. Hurkacz: a 29-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 76 points in favour of A. De Minaur. A. De Minaur won 8 of the last ten matches, H. Hurkacz won 8. A. De Minaur has 5 wins in the last five matches. H. Hurkacz has 4 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, A. De Minaur leads 2 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make A. De Minaur the favourite.

The model gave A. De Minaur the win at 55 %, with a likely score of 2-0. A. De Minaur won 1-0: prediction correct.

Recent matches

A. De Minaur's last five matches

H. Hurkacz's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

A. De Minaur leads 2 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, A. De Minaur beat M. Navone (7-6 6-2), then Q. Halys (3-6 7-6 7-5), then A. Rublev (1-6 6-2 6-3). To reach this round, H. Hurkacz beat L. Tien (5-7 6-3 6-4), then A. Gea (7-6 6-7 6-2), then K. Khachanov (7-6 6-2). In 2025, the tournament was won by J. Sinner, who beat L. Tien in the final (6-2 6-2).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, A. De Minaur wins 59 % (73 of 123), H. Hurkacz 53 % (127 of 238). In deciding sets, A. De Minaur wins 59 % of the time (103 matches), H. Hurkacz 56 % (132 matches). After losing the first set, A. De Minaur turned 29 % of matches around (139 occasions), H. Hurkacz 32 % (114 occasions). After winning the first set, A. De Minaur went on to win 88 % of matches, H. Hurkacz 83 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about A. De Minaur – H. Hurkacz

Who is the favourite between A. De Minaur and H. Hurkacz?
The match is over: A. De Minaur won 1-0. Bookmakers make A. De Minaur the favourite, priced at 1.69 against 2.14 for H. Hurkacz. Pronocast's model had A. De Minaur winning at 55 %.
When is the A. De Minaur – H. Hurkacz match?
On Monday, 5 October 2026 at 11:30, at the Beijing tournament (Semi-final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between A. De Minaur and H. Hurkacz?
Since 2020, A. De Minaur leads 2 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for A. De Minaur – H. Hurkacz?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Beijing

Tournament page

Other matches on 5 October 2026

All matches on 5 October 2026