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A. Tabilo vs T. Paul prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
A. TabiloT. Paul
27.5 %72.5 %
Model favourite
T. Paul
Probability
72 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
2-0 · A. Tabilo

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPTokyoRound of 32hard court06:30
A. Tabilo
A. Tabilo
vs
T. Paul
T. Paul
2165
Elo
2355
2073
Elo on hard court
2208
4 / 10
Form (last 10)
7 / 10
2
Recent matches
0
–
Head-to-head
Edge
3.12
Odds
1.25

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

A. Tabilo
  1. W
  2. L
  3. L
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. L
  9. L
  10. L
T. Paul
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. L
4 – 6
Wins – losses
7 – 3
12 – 16
Sets won – lost
18 – 14
3 losses
Current streak
1 loss
37-26 (59%)
2026 record
38-17 (69%)
77-60 (56%)
Record on hard court
135-73 (65%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by A. Tabilo and T. Paul, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

T. Paul comes in with an Elo of 2355, against 2165 for A. Tabilo: a 189-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 136 points in favour of T. Paul. A. Tabilo won 4 of the last ten matches, T. Paul won 7. A. Tabilo has 2 wins in the last five matches. T. Paul has 3 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, T. Paul leads 2 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make T. Paul the favourite.

The model gave T. Paul the win at 72 %, with a likely score of 2-0. A. Tabilo won 2-0: prediction missed.

Recent matches

A. Tabilo's last five matches

T. Paul's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

T. Paul leads 2 to 0

Road through the tournament

This is A. Tabilo's first match of the tournament. This is T. Paul's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by C. Alcaraz, who beat T. Fritz in the final (6-4 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, A. Tabilo wins 48 % (68 of 141), T. Paul 50 % (78 of 155). In deciding sets, A. Tabilo wins 54 % of the time (121 matches), T. Paul 61 % (116 matches). After losing the first set, A. Tabilo turned 27 % of matches around (142 occasions), T. Paul 32 % (130 occasions). After winning the first set, A. Tabilo went on to win 82 % of matches, T. Paul 86 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about A. Tabilo – T. Paul

Who is the favourite between A. Tabilo and T. Paul?
The match is over: A. Tabilo won 2-0. Bookmakers make T. Paul the favourite, priced at 1.25 against 3.12 for A. Tabilo. Pronocast's model had T. Paul winning at 72 %.
When is the A. Tabilo – T. Paul match?
On Wednesday, 30 September 2026 at 06:30, at the Tokyo tournament (Round of 32, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between A. Tabilo and T. Paul?
Since 2020, T. Paul leads 2 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for A. Tabilo – T. Paul?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Tokyo

Tournament page

Other matches on 30 September 2026

All matches on 30 September 2026